Sha Tin · 2019-09-15
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly V 1.46.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 5 | 2.0 | N |
| 2 | 0 | FAMILY LEADER Led early B/H C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 5.8 | N |
| 3 | 0 | GORGEOUS AGAIN Closed strongly B/H/TT J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 4 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 4 | 0 | KING'S MAN Closed strongly V G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 8 | 12.0 | 5 |
| 5 | 0 | CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly SR/TT1 B Shinn · F C Lor | B Shinn | F C Lor | 7 | 13.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | FULL OF CHANCES V M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 3 | 33.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | AMAZING AGILITY SR/TT H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 1 | 14.0 | 7 |
| 8 | 0 | BULLISH GLORY H K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 2 | 5.5 | 8-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-15 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CROWN AVENUE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with FAMILY LEADER second and GORGEOUS AGAIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CROWN AVENUE | 26.1% | 3.83 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | FAMILY LEADER | 23.9% | 4.18 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | BULLISH GLORY | 18.7% | 5.35 | 8 |
| 4 | 0 | GORGEOUS AGAIN | 8.0% | 12.44 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | CHEERFUL STAR | 7.7% | 13.01 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | AMAZING AGILITY | 6.5% | 15.32 | 7 |
| 7 | 0 | KING'S MAN | 6.1% | 16.33 | 4 |
| 8 | 0 | FULL OF CHANCES | 2.8% | 35.21 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 20
PLACE
3 11
4 17
6 24
QUINELLA
3,4 55.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 22.5
3,6 37
4,6 53.5
TIERCE
3,4,6 287
TRIO
3,4,6 89
FIRST 4
1,3,4,6 140
QUARTET
3,4,6,1 1,404
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 15
A3 —