Sha Tin · 2019-09-15
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | VITAL SPRING Closed strongly TT 1.23.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 5.6 | N |
| 2 | 0 | BIG BULLY Closed strongly B N Callan · D J Hall | N Callan | D J Hall | 2 | 6.0 | N |
| 3 | 0 | FLYING NOBLE Closed strongly CP1 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 4 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | JOY MASTER Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 12 | 8.4 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | HARBOUR CENTURY B/TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 7 | 39.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | CAPTAIN BOSS Closed strongly B/XB/TT M Chadwick · A T Millard | M Chadwick | A T Millard | 1 | 4.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE B Shinn · R Gibson | B Shinn | R Gibson | 5 | 5.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | FRIENDS OF NANJING Closed strongly TT C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 11 | 37.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | KING MORTAR Led early V2 H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 10 | 146.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | SOCCER MASTER Closed strongly J Moreira · D E Ferraris | J Moreira | D E Ferraris | 14 | 26.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | LIVERBIRD STAR K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 9.6 | 3-1/2 |
| 12 | 0 | CHATER THUNDER B-/H1/XB1/TT- A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 3 | 35.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 13 | 0 | FIRE AND GOLD K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 13 | 115.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 14 | 0 | WHAMPOA STAR T H So · Y S Tsui | T H So | Y S Tsui | 8 | 85.0 | 5-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2019-09-15 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. VITAL SPRING, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with BIG BULLY second and FLYING NOBLE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite CAPTAIN BOSS finished 6th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | LIVERBIRD STAR | 14.5% | 6.89 | 11 |
| 2 | 0 | BIG BULLY | 14.4% | 6.94 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | SOCCER MASTER | 12.5% | 7.98 | 10 |
| 4 | 0 | CAPTAIN BOSS | 11.9% | 8.41 | 6 |
| 5 | 0 | JOY MASTER | 11.0% | 9.06 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | VITAL SPRING | 7.8% | 12.78 | 1 |
| 7 | 0 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE | 7.2% | 13.85 | 7 |
| 8 | 0 | FLYING NOBLE | 5.6% | 17.83 | 3 |
| 9 | 0 | FRIENDS OF NANJING | 4.5% | 22.01 | 8 |
| 10 | 0 | HARBOUR CENTURY | 3.2% | 31.47 | 5 |
| 11 | 0 | CHATER THUNDER | 2.2% | 44.47 | 12 |
| 12 | 0 | FIRE AND GOLD | 2.1% | 48.35 | 13 |
| 13 | 0 | WHAMPOA STAR | 1.9% | 51.42 | 14 |
| 14 | 0 | KING MORTAR | 1.0% | 101.57 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 56.5
PLACE
1 33.5
3 21
8 19
QUINELLA
3,8 186
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 115.5
1,8 120
3,8 70
TIERCE
3,8,1 2,588
TRIO
1,3,8 619
FIRST 4
1,3,5,8 1,201
QUARTET
3,8,1,5 18,203
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,6/1,3,8 8,058
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 21.5
A3 —
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
1/3 188.5
1/8 45