跑馬地 · 2019-10-23
第 8場
2019-10-23跑馬地第8場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、L Ho訓練的LE TERROIR勝出，贏出1。FIRST RESPONDER獲得亞軍；BREEDERS' STAR獲得季軍。頭馬以1.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LE TERROIR CP/H/XB 1.09.72 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · L Ho | J Moreira | L Ho | 1 | 1.7 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | FIRST RESPONDER CP1/TT N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 6 | 11.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | BREEDERS' STAR H K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 2 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | SMART LEADER B/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz | B Shinn | A S Cruz | 4 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | MONKEY JEWELLERY M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 11 | 20.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | JADE THEATRE B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 9 | 69.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | JUMBO HAPPINESS Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 3 | 6.7 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | HARRIER JET V/TT A Domeyer · P O'Sullivan | A Domeyer | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 25.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 11 | SKYEY SUPREME TT M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 7 | 61.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 12 | WON WON TOO TT H T Mo · C H Yip | H T Mo | C H Yip | 10 | 176.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | GREEN MOUNTAIN H1/TT1 G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 8 | 13.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | ARDENODE TT T H So · W Y So | T H So | W Y So | 5 | 127.0 | 6-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LE TERROIR | 47.7% | 2.10 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | SMART LEADER | 12.0% | 8.32 | 4 |
| 3 | 9 | MONKEY JEWELLERY | 11.4% | 8.75 | 5 |
| 4 | 2 | JUMBO HAPPINESS | 7.6% | 13.24 | 7 |
| 5 | 1 | BREEDERS' STAR | 7.3% | 13.79 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | FIRST RESPONDER | 5.7% | 17.52 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | GREEN MOUNTAIN | 3.0% | 33.53 | 11 |
| 8 | 8 | HARRIER JET | 2.4% | 42.40 | 8 |
| 9 | 11 | SKYEY SUPREME | 1.0% | 99.93 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | WON WON TOO | 0.9% | 109.11 | 10 |
| 11 | 4 | JADE THEATRE | 0.6% | 179.47 | 6 |
| 12 | 10 | ARDENODE | 0.5% | 196.28 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 17
PLACE
1 26
5 11.5
7 24
QUINELLA
5,7 80
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 40
1,7 162
5,7 39.5
TIERCE
5,7,1 670
TRIO
1,5,7 224
FIRST 4
1,3,5,7 376
QUARTET
5,7,1,3 3,727
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
6,11,12/1,5,7 181,396
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 15
A3 —
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
12/5 255.5
12/7 256.5