Happy Valley · 2019-10-23
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-23 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LE TERROIR, ridden by J Moreira and trained by L Ho, won by 1, with FIRST RESPONDER second and BREEDERS' STAR third. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LE TERROIR CP/H/XB 1.09.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · L Ho | J Moreira | L Ho | 1 | 1.7 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | FIRST RESPONDER CP1/TT N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 6 | 11.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | BREEDERS' STAR H K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 2 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | SMART LEADER B/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz | B Shinn | A S Cruz | 4 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | MONKEY JEWELLERY M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 11 | 20.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | JADE THEATRE B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 9 | 69.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | JUMBO HAPPINESS Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 3 | 6.7 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | HARRIER JET V/TT A Domeyer · P O'Sullivan | A Domeyer | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 25.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 11 | SKYEY SUPREME TT M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 7 | 61.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 12 | WON WON TOO TT H T Mo · C H Yip | H T Mo | C H Yip | 10 | 176.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | GREEN MOUNTAIN H1/TT1 G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 8 | 13.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | ARDENODE TT T H So · W Y So | T H So | W Y So | 5 | 127.0 | 6-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LE TERROIR | 47.7% | 2.10 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | SMART LEADER | 12.0% | 8.32 | 4 |
| 3 | 9 | MONKEY JEWELLERY | 11.4% | 8.75 | 5 |
| 4 | 2 | JUMBO HAPPINESS | 7.6% | 13.24 | 7 |
| 5 | 1 | BREEDERS' STAR | 7.3% | 13.79 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | FIRST RESPONDER | 5.7% | 17.52 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | GREEN MOUNTAIN | 3.0% | 33.53 | 11 |
| 8 | 8 | HARRIER JET | 2.4% | 42.40 | 8 |
| 9 | 11 | SKYEY SUPREME | 1.0% | 99.93 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | WON WON TOO | 0.9% | 109.11 | 10 |
| 11 | 4 | JADE THEATRE | 0.6% | 179.47 | 6 |
| 12 | 10 | ARDENODE | 0.5% | 196.28 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 17
PLACE
1 26
5 11.5
7 24
QUINELLA
5,7 80
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 40
1,7 162
5,7 39.5
TIERCE
5,7,1 670
TRIO
1,5,7 224
FIRST 4
1,3,5,7 376
QUARTET
5,7,1,3 3,727
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
6,11,12/1,5,7 181,396
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 15
A3 —
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
12/5 255.5
12/7 256.5