Happy Valley · 2019-10-23
Race 7
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | JOLLY HONOUR Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 7 | 15.0 | N |
| 2 | 0 | SURREALISM Closed strongly H R Bayliss · D E Ferraris | R Bayliss | D E Ferraris | 8 | 159.0 | N |
| 3 | 0 | RELIABLE TEAM Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 6 | 2.6 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | JADE FORTUNE Closed strongly B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 4 | 30.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE H/V B Shinn · L Ho | B Shinn | L Ho | 5 | 6.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | COT CAMPBELL Closed strongly B/XB A Domeyer · A T Millard | A Domeyer | A T Millard | 9 | 5.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | BIG BANG BONG TT C Schofield · C W Chang | C Schofield | C W Chang | 11 | 34.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | SARRI N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 2 | 6.4 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | MONSTER KAKA Closed strongly PC-/H/P1 J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 10 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | HIGH VOLATILITY B2 A Sanna · K W Lui | A Sanna | K W Lui | 1 | 15.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | GO GO FIRST B/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 12 | 75.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | CALIFORNIA ARGENT Led early H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 20.0 | 9-1/2 |
| — | 0 | MERRYGOWIN H N Wong · P O'Sullivan | H N Wong | P O'Sullivan | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-23 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. JOLLY HONOUR, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by Y S Tsui, won by N, with SURREALISM second and RELIABLE TEAM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite RELIABLE TEAM finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | RELIABLE TEAM | 35.6% | 2.81 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | MONSTER KAKA | 21.6% | 4.63 | 9 |
| 3 | 0 | COT CAMPBELL | 12.6% | 7.93 | 6 |
| 4 | 0 | SARRI | 7.9% | 12.66 | 8 |
| 5 | 0 | HIGH VOLATILITY | 5.5% | 18.29 | 10 |
| 6 | 0 | BIG BANG BONG | 3.9% | 25.51 | 7 |
| 7 | 0 | GO GO FIRST | 3.3% | 29.89 | 11 |
| 8 | 0 | CALIFORNIA ARGENT | 3.0% | 33.63 | 12 |
| 9 | 0 | JOLLY HONOUR | 2.5% | 40.64 | 1 |
| 10 | 0 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE | 2.3% | 44.08 | 5 |
| 11 | 0 | JADE FORTUNE | 1.2% | 80.82 | 4 |
| 12 | 0 | SURREALISM | 0.6% | 158.15 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 152
PLACE
6 12
11 280.5
12 40
QUINELLA
11,12 9,147.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,11 715.5
6,12 74
11,12 1,791
TIERCE
12,11,6 79,959
TRIO
6,11,12 9,157
FIRST 4
5,6,11,12 31,964
QUARTET
12,11,6,5 1,640,176
3 PICK 1
A3 38.5
A2 —
A1 —
All pools (2 more)
6TH DOUBLE
3/11 555
3/12 368.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,6,7/3,5,6/Any Combination 220,092