Happy Valley · 2019-10-23
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-23 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. AFTER ME, ridden by A Sanna and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with LA BOMBA second and ROYAL CHOCOLATE third. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | AFTER ME TT1 0.57.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Sanna · P F Yiu | A Sanna | P F Yiu | 1 | 3.2 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | LA BOMBA G van Niekerk · D J Whyte | G van Niekerk | D J Whyte | 2 | 22.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | ROYAL CHOCOLATE CP-/SR1/TT A Domeyer · W Y So | A Domeyer | W Y So | 9 | 7.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | GREAT SON B/TT Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 9.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | SHOW MISSION B K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 7 | 18.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 10 | RAICHU TT J Moreira · D E Ferraris | J Moreira | D E Ferraris | 5 | 7.3 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | EXPONENTS V B Shinn · Y S Tsui | B Shinn | Y S Tsui | 3 | 4.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | PEACE ON EARTH B/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 10 | 68.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | WHISTLE UP V/XB K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 4 | 8.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | SUPER FUN H2 H T Mo · C H Yip | H T Mo | C H Yip | 8 | 27.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | CARRY TO WIN B M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 11 | 21.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | BLISSFUL EIGHT B R Bayliss · J Moore | R Bayliss | J Moore | 6 | 112.0 | 30-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | RAICHU | 16.9% | 5.92 | 6 |
| 2 | 6 | EXPONENTS | 13.9% | 7.20 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | AFTER ME | 13.0% | 7.66 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | GREAT SON | 12.4% | 8.04 | 4 |
| 5 | 4 | ROYAL CHOCOLATE | 12.0% | 8.35 | 3 |
| 6 | 8 | SHOW MISSION | 8.0% | 12.56 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | WHISTLE UP | 5.5% | 18.07 | 9 |
| 8 | 1 | SUPER FUN | 5.1% | 19.44 | 10 |
| 9 | 3 | LA BOMBA | 4.7% | 21.29 | 2 |
| 10 | 12 | CARRY TO WIN | 4.5% | 22.24 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | PEACE ON EARTH | 2.1% | 46.80 | 8 |
| 12 | 7 | BLISSFUL EIGHT | 1.8% | 56.06 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 32.5
PLACE
3 61
4 26
5 15
QUINELLA
3,5 454.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 278
3,5 157
4,5 55.5
TIERCE
5,3,4 6,738
TRIO
3,4,5 1,136
FIRST 4
2,3,4,5 2,039
QUARTET
5,3,4,2 47,073
1ST DOUBLE
11/3 465.5
11/5 290
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 22.5
A3 —
A2 —