Happy Valley · 2019-10-23
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/XB/TT 1.39.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 5 | 8.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | CALLING THE SHOTS B/TT A Domeyer · A S Cruz | A Domeyer | A S Cruz | 4 | 6.4 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | MUTUAL JOY B/H G van Niekerk · P O'Sullivan | G van Niekerk | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 5.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | LUCKY SHINY DAY Closed strongly CP J Moreira · L Ho | J Moreira | L Ho | 8 | 2.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | KWAICHUNG BROTHERS Closed strongly XB-/B N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 2 | 19.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | THE JOY OF GIVING Closed strongly B Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 12 | 14.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 0 | VIRTUS STAR Closed strongly L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 10 | 38.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | ROCKAGE Closed strongly B/H/XB2/TT M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 7 | 38.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | DOCTORS DELIGHT H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 3 | 6.8 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | LET'S COME BACK Led early CP/TT H T Mo · C Fownes | H T Mo | C Fownes | 11 | 23.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | LITTLE ISLAND B2 C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 9 | 29.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | SUNNY MAJOR B-/V2 A Sanna · D E Ferraris | A Sanna | D E Ferraris | 6 | 49.0 | 11-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-23 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WONDERFUL TIGER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with CALLING THE SHOTS second and MUTUAL JOY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite LUCKY SHINY DAY finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | LUCKY SHINY DAY | 29.8% | 3.36 | 4 |
| 2 | 0 | DOCTORS DELIGHT | 10.3% | 9.70 | 9 |
| 3 | 0 | LET'S COME BACK | 9.4% | 10.66 | 10 |
| 4 | 0 | CALLING THE SHOTS | 8.8% | 11.33 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | WONDERFUL TIGER | 7.8% | 12.81 | 1 |
| 6 | 0 | THE JOY OF GIVING | 6.9% | 14.53 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | MUTUAL JOY | 6.7% | 14.91 | 3 |
| 8 | 0 | KWAICHUNG BROTHERS | 5.8% | 17.24 | 5 |
| 9 | 0 | VIRTUS STAR | 4.2% | 24.00 | 7 |
| 10 | 0 | LITTLE ISLAND | 4.1% | 24.44 | 11 |
| 11 | 0 | ROCKAGE | 3.9% | 25.74 | 8 |
| 12 | 0 | SUNNY MAJOR | 2.4% | 42.33 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 86.5
PLACE
1 21
10 19
11 23
QUINELLA
1,11 288.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,10 67
1,11 98
10,11 79.5
TIERCE
11,1,10 3,660
TRIO
1,10,11 513
FIRST 4
1,5,10,11 279
QUARTET
11,1,10,5 10,307
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 23