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Happy Valley · 2019-10-23

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/P/TT 1.40.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · R Gibson 9 30.0 N
2 0 ENJOY LIFE Closed strongly B U Rispoli · Y S Tsui 5 11.0 N
3 0 SPEEDY WALLY Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C Fownes 11 4.9 1-1/2
4 0 CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE Led early H/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 4 17.0 1-3/4
5 0 AMAZING SATCHMO Closed strongly B K Teetan · D E Ferraris 2 3.8 2-1/4
6 0 PLAY WISE Closed strongly B M F Poon · C H Yip 12 15.0 2-1/2
7 0 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE P J Moreira · J Size 7 2.9 4-3/4
8 0 CHIU CHOW KID Closed strongly TT A Sanna · T P Yung 8 49.0 5-1/2
9 0 THE FULL BLOOM T H So · C H Yip 1 33.0 5-3/4
10 0 SOCKET ELITE N Callan · C H Yip 6 132.0 6-1/2
11 0 THOU SHALL SING TT K C Leung · W Y So 3 10.0 8-3/4
12 0 MULTIMAX V-/TT H N Wong · L Ho 10 103.0 14-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-23 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RIGHT HONOURABLE, ridden by C Schofield and trained by R Gibson, won by N, with ENJOY LIFE second and SPEEDY WALLY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RIGHT HONOURABLE—2. ENJOY LIFE+0.05L3. SPEEDY WALLY+1.5L4. CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE+1.75L5. AMAZING SATCHMO+2.25L6. PLAY WISE+2.5L7. MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE+4.75L8. CHIU CHOW KID+5.5L9. THE FULL BLOOM+5.75L10. SOCKET ELITE+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE (38.4%) finished 7th — the winner RIGHT HONOURABLE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE 38.4% 2.60 7
2 0 SPEEDY WALLY 12.7% 7.85 3
3 0 AMAZING SATCHMO 12.2% 8.18 5
4 0 THOU SHALL SING 9.4% 10.62 11
5 0 PLAY WISE 5.8% 17.29 6
6 0 CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE 4.8% 20.76 4
7 0 CHIU CHOW KID 4.6% 21.55 8
8 0 MULTIMAX 4.1% 24.58 12
9 0 ENJOY LIFE 3.1% 32.01 2
10 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE 2.4% 41.35 1
11 0 THE FULL BLOOM 1.4% 72.76 9
12 0 SOCKET ELITE 1.0% 100.81 10
MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAESPEEDY WALLYAMAZING SATCHMOTHOU SHALL SINGPLAY WISECIRCUIT NUMBER ONECHIU CHOW KIDMULTIMAXENJOY LIFERIGHT HONOURABLE — wonTHE FULL BLOOMSOCKET ELITE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 305.5

PLACE

3 66.5

8 27

10 16

QUINELLA

3,8 1,474

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 354.5

3,10 217

8,10 70.5

TIERCE

3,8,10 17,503

TRIO

3,8,10 1,700

FIRST 4

3,4,8,10 7,218

QUARTET

3,8,10,4 247,854

2ND DOUBLE

5/3 1,511

5/8 156

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 45.5