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Happy Valley · 2019-10-23

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-23 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RIGHT HONOURABLE, ridden by C Schofield and trained by R Gibson, won by N, with ENJOY LIFE second and SPEEDY WALLY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.40.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/P/TT 1.40.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · R Gibson 9 30.0 N
2 8 ENJOY LIFE Closed strongly B U Rispoli · Y S Tsui 5 11.0 N
3 10 SPEEDY WALLY Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C Fownes 11 4.9 1-1/2
4 4 CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE Led early H/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 4 17.0 1-3/4
5 1 AMAZING SATCHMO Closed strongly B K Teetan · D E Ferraris 2 3.8 2-1/4
6 2 PLAY WISE Closed strongly B M F Poon · C H Yip 12 15.0 2-1/2
7 9 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE P J Moreira · J Size 7 2.9 4-3/4
8 7 CHIU CHOW KID Closed strongly TT A Sanna · T P Yung 8 49.0 5-1/2
9 11 THE FULL BLOOM T H So · C H Yip 1 33.0 5-3/4
10 5 SOCKET ELITE N Callan · C H Yip 6 132.0 6-1/2
11 6 THOU SHALL SING TT K C Leung · W Y So 3 10.0 8-3/4
12 12 MULTIMAX V-/TT H N Wong · L Ho 10 103.0 14-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RIGHT HONOURABLE2. ENJOY LIFE+0.05L3. SPEEDY WALLY+1.5L4. CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE+1.75L5. AMAZING SATCHMO+2.25L6. PLAY WISE+2.5L7. MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE+4.75L8. CHIU CHOW KID+5.5L9. THE FULL BLOOM+5.75L10. SOCKET ELITE+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE (38.4%) finished 7th — the winner RIGHT HONOURABLE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE 38.4% 2.60 7
2 10 SPEEDY WALLY 12.7% 7.85 3
3 1 AMAZING SATCHMO 12.2% 8.18 5
4 6 THOU SHALL SING 9.4% 10.62 11
5 2 PLAY WISE 5.8% 17.29 6
6 4 CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE 4.8% 20.76 4
7 7 CHIU CHOW KID 4.6% 21.55 8
8 12 MULTIMAX 4.1% 24.58 12
9 8 ENJOY LIFE 3.1% 32.01 2
10 3 RIGHT HONOURABLE 2.4% 41.35 1
11 11 THE FULL BLOOM 1.4% 72.76 9
12 5 SOCKET ELITE 1.0% 100.81 10
MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAESPEEDY WALLYAMAZING SATCHMOTHOU SHALL SINGPLAY WISECIRCUIT NUMBER ONECHIU CHOW KIDMULTIMAXENJOY LIFERIGHT HONOURABLE — wonTHE FULL BLOOMSOCKET ELITE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 305.5

PLACE

3 66.5

8 27

10 16

QUINELLA

3,8 1,474

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 354.5

3,10 217

8,10 70.5

TIERCE

3,8,10 17,503

TRIO

3,8,10 1,700

FIRST 4

3,4,8,10 7,218

QUARTET

3,8,10,4 247,854

2ND DOUBLE

5/3 1,511

5/8 156

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 45.5

A1