Happy Valley · 2019-10-23
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | PLAYA DEL PUENTE Wire to wire SR/TT 1.39.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 1 | 2.7 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | HAPPY DRAGON Closed strongly H M Chadwick · J Moore | M Chadwick | J Moore | 2 | 7.5 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | NOT USUAL TALENT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 3 | 2.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | HELENE CHARISMA Closed strongly B/TT G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 6 | 10.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | BRAVE LEGEND B/TT A Domeyer · A S Cruz | A Domeyer | A S Cruz | 5 | 17.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | RUTHVEN Closed strongly H/TT R Bayliss · F C Lor | R Bayliss | F C Lor | 9 | 18.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | GOOD OMEN Closed strongly CP A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 8 | 42.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | MR SO AND SO TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 7 | 23.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | JOYFUL TRINITY N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 4 | 26.0 | 29-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-23 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PLAYA DEL PUENTE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C S Shum, won by 3, with HAPPY DRAGON second and NOT USUAL TALENT third. The winner led throughout. The 2.5 favourite NOT USUAL TALENT finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | PLAYA DEL PUENTE | 37.0% | 2.71 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | NOT USUAL TALENT | 23.9% | 4.18 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | HAPPY DRAGON | 11.2% | 8.96 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | HELENE CHARISMA | 8.5% | 11.74 | 4 |
| 5 | 0 | BRAVE LEGEND | 7.5% | 13.34 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | MR SO AND SO | 4.4% | 22.93 | 8 |
| 7 | 0 | RUTHVEN | 3.3% | 30.05 | 6 |
| 8 | 0 | JOYFUL TRINITY | 2.6% | 38.28 | 9 |
| 9 | 0 | GOOD OMEN | 1.6% | 61.44 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 27
PLACE
2 11.5
5 19.5
9 12.5
QUINELLA
5,9 93
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 32
2,9 17.5
5,9 33
TIERCE
9,5,2 351
TRIO
2,5,9 53
FIRST 4
1,2,5,9 64
QUARTET
9,5,2,1 1,358
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 13
A3 —
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
3/5 379
3/9 1,321.5