跑馬地 · 2019-10-23
第 7場
2019-10-23跑馬地第7場，Class 3，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由G van Niekerk策騎、Y S Tsui訓練的JOLLY HONOUR勝出，贏出N。SURREALISM獲得亞軍；RELIABLE TEAM獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.6倍大熱門RELIABLE TEAM跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | JOLLY HONOUR 後段發力 B/TT 1.39.58 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 7 | 15.0 | N |
| 2 | 11 | SURREALISM 後段發力 H R Bayliss · D E Ferraris | R Bayliss | D E Ferraris | 8 | 159.0 | N |
| 3 | 6 | RELIABLE TEAM Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 6 | 2.6 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | JADE FORTUNE 後段發力 B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 4 | 30.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE H/V B Shinn · L Ho | B Shinn | L Ho | 5 | 6.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | COT CAMPBELL 後段發力 B/XB A Domeyer · A T Millard | A Domeyer | A T Millard | 9 | 5.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | BIG BANG BONG TT C Schofield · C W Chang | C Schofield | C W Chang | 11 | 34.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | SARRI N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 2 | 6.4 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | MONSTER KAKA 後段發力 PC-/H/P1 J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 10 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | HIGH VOLATILITY B2 A Sanna · K W Lui | A Sanna | K W Lui | 1 | 15.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | GO GO FIRST B/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 12 | 75.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 2 | CALIFORNIA ARGENT 早段領放 H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 20.0 | 9-1/2 |
| — | 0 | MERRYGOWIN H N Wong · P O'Sullivan | H N Wong | P O'Sullivan | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | RELIABLE TEAM | 35.6% | 2.81 | 3 |
| 2 | 10 | MONSTER KAKA | 21.6% | 4.63 | 9 |
| 3 | 1 | COT CAMPBELL | 12.6% | 7.93 | 6 |
| 4 | 3 | SARRI | 7.9% | 12.66 | 8 |
| 5 | 4 | HIGH VOLATILITY | 5.5% | 18.29 | 10 |
| 6 | 8 | BIG BANG BONG | 3.9% | 25.51 | 7 |
| 7 | 7 | GO GO FIRST | 3.3% | 29.89 | 11 |
| 8 | 2 | CALIFORNIA ARGENT | 3.0% | 33.63 | 12 |
| 9 | 12 | JOLLY HONOUR | 2.5% | 40.64 | 1 |
| 10 | 9 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE | 2.3% | 44.08 | 5 |
| 11 | 5 | JADE FORTUNE | 1.2% | 80.82 | 4 |
| 12 | 11 | SURREALISM | 0.6% | 158.15 | 2 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 152
PLACE
6 12
11 280.5
12 40
QUINELLA
11,12 9,147.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,11 715.5
6,12 74
11,12 1,791
TIERCE
12,11,6 79,959
TRIO
6,11,12 9,157
FIRST 4
5,6,11,12 31,964
QUARTET
12,11,6,5 1,640,176
3 PICK 1
A3 38.5
A1 —
A2 —
全部彩池（另 2 項）
6TH DOUBLE
3/11 555
3/12 368.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,6,7/3,5,6/Any Combination 220,092