沙田 · 2019-10-27
第 5場
2019-10-27沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由G van Niekerk策騎、C W Chang訓練的STAR SUPERIOR勝出，贏出3/4。ZERO HEDGE獲得亞軍；GRACIOUS RYDER獲得季軍。3.6倍大熱門PROMISE KEPT跑獲第11名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | STAR SUPERIOR 1.09.55 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） G van Niekerk · C W Chang | G van Niekerk | C W Chang | 8 | 5.4 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 4 | ZERO HEDGE P-/XB/PC1 B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 3 | 18.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | GRACIOUS RYDER B Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 10 | 18.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | FOODIE PRINCESS TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 9 | 18.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | GOLDIE FLANKER T H So · P O'Sullivan | T H So | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 21.0 | 6 |
| 6 | 7 | GOLDEN EFFORT B N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 1 | 26.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | VIVA COUNCIL V H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 7 | 5.5 | 7 |
| 8 | 11 | JIMSON THE DRAGON XB1/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 11 | 34.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | U W BROTHER P1 U Rispoli · Y S Tsui | U Rispoli | Y S Tsui | 2 | 21.0 | 10 |
| 10 | 2 | ELITE BOY B/TT M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 6 | 5.1 | 10 |
| 11 | 10 | PROMISE KEPT XB/TT J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 4 | 3.6 | 15-3/4 |
| 12 | 6 | COOLCELEB B/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 12 | 17.0 | 18-1/4 |
| — | 0 | THE CREATETH C Schofield · J Moore | C Schofield | J Moore | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | PROMISE KEPT | 14.5% | 6.90 | 11 |
| 2 | 2 | ELITE BOY | 11.7% | 8.57 | 10 |
| 3 | 4 | ZERO HEDGE | 10.7% | 9.30 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | COOLCELEB | 10.7% | 9.36 | 12 |
| 5 | 3 | GRACIOUS RYDER | 10.6% | 9.41 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | VIVA COUNCIL | 9.1% | 11.03 | 7 |
| 7 | 12 | STAR SUPERIOR | 7.2% | 13.96 | 1 |
| 8 | 8 | FOODIE PRINCESS | 6.6% | 15.12 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | JIMSON THE DRAGON | 6.1% | 16.31 | 8 |
| 10 | 7 | GOLDEN EFFORT | 5.6% | 17.81 | 6 |
| 11 | 1 | GOLDIE FLANKER | 4.6% | 21.62 | 5 |
| 12 | 9 | U W BROTHER | 2.6% | 38.90 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 54.5
PLACE
3 51.5
4 42
12 20
QUINELLA
4,12 462.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 334
3,12 133
4,12 147.5
TIERCE
12,4,3 10,702
TRIO
3,4,12 1,854
FIRST 4
3,4,8,12 7,941
QUARTET
12,4,3,8 158,059
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,7/3,4,12 55,841
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 22
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
1/4 98
1/12 165