沙田 · 2019-10-27
第 8場
2019-10-27沙田第8場，Class 3，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由J Moreira策騎、D E Ferraris訓練的BEAR SLAM勝出，贏出1-1/2。VOLPINO獲得亞軍；WARM THE VOICE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.1倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | BEAR SLAM 後段發力 1.39.00 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · D E Ferraris | J Moreira | D E Ferraris | 2 | 2.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | VOLPINO 後段發力 H/XB/TT B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 14 | 42.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | WARM THE VOICE B/TT M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 9 | 13.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | RULETHEROOST 後段發力 CP A Sanna · F C Lor | A Sanna | F C Lor | 1 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 12 | CLEAR CHOICE B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 10 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | VIGOR FAME 早段領放 XB-/H/TT- H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 8 | 10.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | RICKFIELD 後段發力 XB M F Poon · A T Millard | M F Poon | A T Millard | 12 | 20.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 3 | GOOD BEAUTY CP-/PC1/TT Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 3 | 5.9 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | HOME WIN B C Schofield · C W Chang | C Schofield | C W Chang | 11 | 83.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 13 | FARSHAD B H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 4 | 12.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 10 | PERFECT TO PLAY 後段發力 H/TT U Rispoli · C Fownes | U Rispoli | C Fownes | 13 | 72.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 14 | WILLIE WAY B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 37.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 13 | 9 | EXALTATION B1/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 5 | 129.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 14 | 6 | CHUNG WAH SPIRIT P2/TT T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 7 | 72.0 | 10-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | BEAR SLAM | 27.6% | 3.62 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | GOOD BEAUTY | 16.9% | 5.93 | 8 |
| 3 | 1 | WARM THE VOICE | 8.9% | 11.22 | 3 |
| 4 | 2 | RICKFIELD | 8.2% | 12.17 | 7 |
| 5 | 11 | RULETHEROOST | 6.9% | 14.51 | 4 |
| 6 | 4 | VIGOR FAME | 6.4% | 15.74 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | VOLPINO | 5.3% | 18.90 | 2 |
| 8 | 12 | CLEAR CHOICE | 5.3% | 19.04 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 4.9% | 20.26 | 11 |
| 10 | 13 | FARSHAD | 3.1% | 31.96 | 10 |
| 11 | 14 | WILLIE WAY | 1.9% | 53.03 | 12 |
| 12 | 7 | HOME WIN | 1.8% | 55.45 | 9 |
| 13 | 9 | EXALTATION | 1.4% | 71.25 | 13 |
| 14 | 6 | CHUNG WAH SPIRIT | 1.4% | 71.32 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 21.5
PLACE
1 32.5
5 82.5
8 12.5
QUINELLA
5,8 409.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 526
1,8 50.5
5,8 143
TIERCE
8,5,1 3,547
TRIO
1,5,8 1,090
FIRST 4
1,5,8,11 1,783
QUARTET
8,5,1,11 24,428
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,6,11/1,5,8 124,530
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 15.5
A2 —
A3 —
7TH DOUBLE
6/5 723.5
6/8 753.5