沙田 · 2019-10-27
第 3場
2019-10-27沙田第3場，Class 5，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由A Sanna策騎、D J Whyte訓練的CHATER THUNDER勝出，贏出SH。WINNING CIRCLE獲得亞軍；MR MAGELLAN獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.6倍大熱門REGENCY GEM跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | CHATER THUNDER 後段發力 B/H/XB 1.40.24 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 7 | 6.6 | SH |
| 2 | 14 | WINNING CIRCLE 早段領放 B-/PC2/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 6 | 65.0 | SH |
| 3 | 1 | MR MAGELLAN 後段發力 C Schofield · Y S Tsui | C Schofield | Y S Tsui | 11 | 11.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | MASTER BERNINI 後段發力 B J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 12 | 5.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | WHAMPOA STAR 後段發力 PC H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 3 | 17.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | REGENCY GEM PC/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 2 | 3.6 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | LITTLE FANTASY CP/TT R Bayliss · K L Man | R Bayliss | K L Man | 10 | 37.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | MI BLANCO 後段發力 B/TT L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan | L Hewitson | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 16.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | IRISH VEGA 後段發力 U Rispoli · C Fownes | U Rispoli | C Fownes | 5 | 14.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | HIDDEN SPIRIT 後段發力 B/TT M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 5.8 | 14-1/2 |
| 11 | 13 | VICTORY MARCH PC/TT M F Poon · C Fownes | M F Poon | C Fownes | 1 | 92.0 | 15-3/4 |
| 12 | 4 | REEVE'S MUNTJAC B/TT G van Niekerk · C H Yip | G van Niekerk | C H Yip | 14 | 36.0 | 17 |
| 13 | 6 | KEEP WINNING TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 13 | 23.0 | 25 |
| 14 | 2 | JOYFUL CONTENDER H-/PC- N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 9 | 36.0 | 25-3/4 |
| — | 0 | LET'S COME BACK U Rispoli · C Fownes | U Rispoli | C Fownes | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | REGENCY GEM | 34.3% | 2.92 | 6 |
| 2 | 5 | HIDDEN SPIRIT | 15.3% | 6.55 | 10 |
| 3 | 11 | MASTER BERNINI | 12.9% | 7.75 | 4 |
| 4 | 1 | MR MAGELLAN | 6.1% | 16.39 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | REEVE'S MUNTJAC | 4.8% | 20.72 | 12 |
| 6 | 8 | MI BLANCO | 4.3% | 23.05 | 8 |
| 7 | 6 | KEEP WINNING | 4.2% | 23.99 | 13 |
| 8 | 7 | IRISH VEGA | 3.8% | 26.30 | 9 |
| 9 | 13 | VICTORY MARCH | 3.2% | 31.14 | 11 |
| 10 | 10 | CHATER THUNDER | 2.8% | 35.47 | 1 |
| 11 | 2 | JOYFUL CONTENDER | 2.8% | 36.29 | 14 |
| 12 | 12 | WHAMPOA STAR | 2.3% | 42.58 | 5 |
| 13 | 9 | LITTLE FANTASY | 1.8% | 55.58 | 7 |
| 14 | 14 | WINNING CIRCLE | 1.4% | 72.42 | 2 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 66.5
PLACE
1 35.5
10 18.5
14 164
QUINELLA
10,14 1,867
QUINELLA PLACE
1,10 125.5
1,14 1,022
10,14 553.5
TIERCE
10,14,1 27,916
TRIO
1,10,14 7,324
FIRST 4
1,10,11,14 6,079
QUARTET
10,14,1,11 146,107
2ND DOUBLE
7/10 3,453
7/14 3,069.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 31
A3 —