跑馬地 · 2019-11-20
第 6場
2019-11-20跑馬地第6場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由M L Yeung策騎、K H Ting訓練的HARDLY SWEARS勝出，贏出3/4。JOYFUL UNION獲得亞軍；PERFECT GLORY獲得季軍。2.9倍大熱門PERFECT GLORY跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | HARDLY SWEARS H 1.09.60 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 2 | 3.2 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | JOYFUL UNION B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 8 | 12.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | PERFECT GLORY Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 1 | 2.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | BEAUTY SPARK CP-/B1/TT K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 3 | 14.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | SMART LEADER B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 12 | 25.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | MR PICASSO B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 10 | 40.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | REEL BIZZY B/TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 9 | 35.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | BREEDERS' STAR H K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 11 | 28.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | MONKEY JEWELLERY A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 5 | 4.5 | 4 |
| 10 | 6 | NATURAL WINNER TT M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 6 | 52.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 8 | JADE THEATRE B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 7 | 21.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | FLYING SWORD H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 4 | 122.0 | 7 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | HARDLY SWEARS | 25.1% | 3.98 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | PERFECT GLORY | 23.5% | 4.25 | 3 |
| 3 | 10 | MONKEY JEWELLERY | 10.3% | 9.70 | 9 |
| 4 | 5 | SMART LEADER | 9.4% | 10.66 | 5 |
| 5 | 11 | MR PICASSO | 6.7% | 15.00 | 6 |
| 6 | 4 | BREEDERS' STAR | 5.2% | 19.11 | 8 |
| 7 | 3 | REEL BIZZY | 5.2% | 19.30 | 7 |
| 8 | 2 | JOYFUL UNION | 4.7% | 21.14 | 2 |
| 9 | 9 | BEAUTY SPARK | 4.1% | 24.10 | 4 |
| 10 | 6 | NATURAL WINNER | 3.1% | 32.65 | 10 |
| 11 | 8 | JADE THEATRE | 1.5% | 66.21 | 11 |
| 12 | 7 | FLYING SWORD | 1.2% | 85.39 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 32.5
PLACE
1 14
2 29.5
12 15
QUINELLA
2,12 189
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 63.5
1,12 28.5
2,12 65.5
TIERCE
12,2,1 916
TRIO
1,2,12 143
FIRST 4
1,2,9,12 436
QUARTET
12,2,1,9 9,054
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 15.5
A2 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
5TH DOUBLE
5/2 110.5
5/12 159.5