跑馬地 · 2019-12-11
第 4場
2019-12-11跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD。由K Teetan策騎、D E Ferraris訓練的MAGNETISM勝出，贏出NOSE。HEAVENLY THOUGHT獲得亞軍；CHEERFUL STAR獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.7倍大熱門HEAVENLY THOUGHT跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | MAGNETISM 後段發力 B/TT 1.50.57 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 5 | 21.0 | NOSE |
| 2 | 1 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT 後段發力 H J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 6 | 4.7 | NOSE |
| 3 | 11 | CHEERFUL STAR 後段發力 CP1/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 2 | 5.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | KING'S MAN 後段發力 V N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 3 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | WON WON TOO CP/TT U Rispoli · C H Yip | U Rispoli | C H Yip | 7 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | CURLING LUXURY 早段領放 L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 9 | 21.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | GOOD DAYS 後段發力 B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 4 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 9 | DOR DOR H C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 11 | 6.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | PERFECT TO PLAY 後段發力 H/TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 12 | 7.8 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | BULLISH GLORY H S De Sousa · C W Chang | S De Sousa | C W Chang | 8 | 7.2 | 6 |
| 11 | 10 | GREAT SMART B H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 10 | 195.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 12 | DASHING DART B/TT K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 54.0 | 7-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 28.9% | 3.46 | 2 |
| 2 | 11 | CHEERFUL STAR | 16.3% | 6.13 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 11.0% | 9.07 | 9 |
| 4 | 4 | KING'S MAN | 8.5% | 11.73 | 4 |
| 5 | 6 | BULLISH GLORY | 7.7% | 12.98 | 10 |
| 6 | 7 | GOOD DAYS | 6.7% | 14.92 | 7 |
| 7 | 5 | WON WON TOO | 5.5% | 18.12 | 5 |
| 8 | 3 | MAGNETISM | 5.1% | 19.61 | 1 |
| 9 | 9 | DOR DOR | 4.9% | 20.49 | 8 |
| 10 | 8 | CURLING LUXURY | 3.0% | 33.28 | 6 |
| 11 | 12 | DASHING DART | 1.5% | 68.50 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | GREAT SMART | 0.8% | 118.85 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 217
PLACE
1 16.5
3 63
11 21
QUINELLA
1,3 543
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 172
1,11 52.5
3,11 169
TIERCE
3,1,11 6,602
TRIO
1,3,11 839
FIRST 4
1,3,4,11 1,151
QUARTET
3,1,11,4 28,972
3 PICK 1
A3 22
A1 —
A2 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3RD DOUBLE
8/1 63
8/3 1,067