Happy Valley · 2019-12-11
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | MAGNETISM Closed strongly B/TT 1.50.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 5 | 21.0 | NOSE |
| 2 | 0 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT Closed strongly H J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 6 | 4.7 | NOSE |
| 3 | 0 | CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly CP1/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 2 | 5.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | KING'S MAN Closed strongly V N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 3 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | WON WON TOO CP/TT U Rispoli · C H Yip | U Rispoli | C H Yip | 7 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | CURLING LUXURY Led early L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 9 | 21.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | GOOD DAYS Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 4 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 0 | DOR DOR H C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 11 | 6.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | PERFECT TO PLAY Closed strongly H/TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 12 | 7.8 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | BULLISH GLORY H S De Sousa · C W Chang | S De Sousa | C W Chang | 8 | 7.2 | 6 |
| 11 | 0 | GREAT SMART B H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 10 | 195.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 0 | DASHING DART B/TT K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 54.0 | 7-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-11 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. MAGNETISM, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D E Ferraris, won by NOSE, with HEAVENLY THOUGHT second and CHEERFUL STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.7 favourite HEAVENLY THOUGHT finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 28.9% | 3.46 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | CHEERFUL STAR | 16.3% | 6.13 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 11.0% | 9.07 | 9 |
| 4 | 0 | KING'S MAN | 8.5% | 11.73 | 4 |
| 5 | 0 | BULLISH GLORY | 7.7% | 12.98 | 10 |
| 6 | 0 | GOOD DAYS | 6.7% | 14.92 | 7 |
| 7 | 0 | WON WON TOO | 5.5% | 18.12 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | MAGNETISM | 5.1% | 19.61 | 1 |
| 9 | 0 | DOR DOR | 4.9% | 20.49 | 8 |
| 10 | 0 | CURLING LUXURY | 3.0% | 33.28 | 6 |
| 11 | 0 | DASHING DART | 1.5% | 68.50 | 12 |
| 12 | 0 | GREAT SMART | 0.8% | 118.85 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 217
PLACE
1 16.5
3 63
11 21
QUINELLA
1,3 543
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 172
1,11 52.5
3,11 169
TIERCE
3,1,11 6,602
TRIO
1,3,11 839
FIRST 4
1,3,4,11 1,151
QUARTET
3,1,11,4 28,972
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 22
A1 —
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
8/1 63
8/3 1,067