Happy Valley · 2019-12-11
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | AFTER ME TT 1.09.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 5 | 8.1 | SH |
| 2 | 0 | FARSHAD B/SR S De Sousa · Y S Tsui | S De Sousa | Y S Tsui | 12 | 8.8 | SH |
| 3 | 0 | LUCKY QUALITY C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 42.0 | SH |
| 4 | 0 | CASIMIRO K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 8 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | FLYING GODSPELL SR H T Mo · K H Ting | H T Mo | K H Ting | 3 | 6.9 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | E GENERATION M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 4 | 31.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | CONFUCIUS DAY B/TT Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 11 | 6.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | SPEEDY DRAGON T H So · D J Hall | T H So | D J Hall | 2 | 24.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | VIGOR CHAMP K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 7 | 120.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | SPICY REALLY B/H H N Wong · F C Lor | H N Wong | F C Lor | 9 | 254.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | DR RESPECT P/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 2.3 | 2-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | HERO TIME B/H/XB/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 10 | 19.0 | 7-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. AFTER ME, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with FARSHAD second and LUCKY QUALITY third. The 2.3 favourite DR RESPECT finished 11th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | DR RESPECT | 43.6% | 2.29 | 11 |
| 2 | 0 | AFTER ME | 12.1% | 8.29 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | CONFUCIUS DAY | 8.3% | 12.02 | 7 |
| 4 | 0 | FARSHAD | 7.5% | 13.37 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | FLYING GODSPELL | 7.1% | 14.05 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | CASIMIRO | 5.1% | 19.55 | 4 |
| 7 | 0 | HERO TIME | 4.4% | 22.90 | 12 |
| 8 | 0 | E GENERATION | 3.9% | 25.83 | 6 |
| 9 | 0 | LUCKY QUALITY | 3.4% | 29.26 | 3 |
| 10 | 0 | SPEEDY DRAGON | 2.9% | 34.26 | 8 |
| 11 | 0 | VIGOR CHAMP | 1.0% | 97.94 | 9 |
| 12 | 0 | SPICY REALLY | 0.7% | 141.53 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 81.5
PLACE
1 25.5
5 98.5
10 24
QUINELLA
1,10 234
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 340
1,10 79.5
5,10 348
TIERCE
10,1,5 16,722
TRIO
1,5,10 2,678
FIRST 4
1,5,10,11 5,156
QUARTET
10,1,5,11 104,790
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,11/1,5,10 626,421
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 35.5
A2 —
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
3/1 285
3/10 2,014