Happy Valley · 2019-12-11
Race 7
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FLAME LILY Closed strongly TT 1.40.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 5 | 3.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | EVERYONE'S ELITE Closed strongly B S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 3 | 2.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | NITRO EXPRESS Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 10 | 16.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE Closed strongly P C Y Ho · J Size | C Y Ho | J Size | 1 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 12 | 20.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | SPEEDY WALLY Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 8 | 17.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | CASA DE FORCA Led early CP M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 7 | 13.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | TURF BRILLIANT Closed strongly T H So · W Y So | T H So | W Y So | 11 | 229.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | SONIC FIGHTER B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 15.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 0 | BREAK RECORD B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 2 | 8.4 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | VEGA RHYTHM H H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 4 | 22.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | GREEN GENERATION B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 6 | 141.0 | 9-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-11 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FLAME LILY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with EVERYONE'S ELITE second and NITRO EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite EVERYONE'S ELITE finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FLAME LILY | 26.9% | 3.71 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | EVERYONE'S ELITE | 17.5% | 5.71 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE | 14.5% | 6.92 | 4 |
| 4 | 0 | CASA DE FORCA | 8.5% | 11.71 | 7 |
| 5 | 0 | SPEEDY WALLY | 7.4% | 13.50 | 6 |
| 6 | 0 | BREAK RECORD | 7.1% | 14.15 | 10 |
| 7 | 0 | SONIC FIGHTER | 7.0% | 14.36 | 9 |
| 8 | 0 | CITY LEGEND | 5.4% | 18.44 | 5 |
| 9 | 0 | NITRO EXPRESS | 2.9% | 34.80 | 3 |
| 10 | 0 | VEGA RHYTHM | 1.4% | 71.01 | 11 |
| 11 | 0 | TURF BRILLIANT | 0.7% | 138.76 | 8 |
| 12 | 0 | GREEN GENERATION | 0.7% | 143.88 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 39.5
PLACE
3 14
6 50.5
12 13
QUINELLA
3,12 57
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 97
3,12 25.5
6,12 93
TIERCE
3,12,6 1,215
TRIO
3,6,12 290
FIRST 4
3,6,9,12 425
QUARTET
3,12,6,9 5,947
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 15.5
All pools (2 more)
6TH DOUBLE
4/3 884.5
4/12 162
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,5,10/4,6,11/Any Combination 140,206