Happy Valley · 2019-12-11
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-11 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RICKFIELD, ridden by M F Poon and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-1/4, with SURREALISM second and MONSTER KAKA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite SURREALISM finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | RICKFIELD Closed strongly XB 1.39.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · A T Millard | M F Poon | A T Millard | 9 | 20.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 6 | SURREALISM Closed strongly H N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 1 | 3.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | MONSTER KAKA A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 5 | 4.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | RACING LUCK Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 4.6 | 2 |
| 5 | 7 | TRIUMPHANT HORSE Closed strongly B/H C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 2 | 8.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | HARRIER JET Closed strongly V/TT K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 42.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | PERFECT GLORY Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 7 | 6.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | FRESH POWER B/TT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 10 | 30.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE Led early H/V T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 8 | 16.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | SMILING CITY SR1 S De Sousa · D J Whyte | S De Sousa | D J Whyte | 3 | 14.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | ARCATRAZ CP/XB L Hewitson · J Moore | L Hewitson | J Moore | 4 | 133.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | EXALTATION B/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 6 | 162.0 | 11-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PERFECT GLORY | 25.7% | 3.90 | 7 |
| 2 | 6 | SURREALISM | 12.2% | 8.23 | 2 |
| 3 | 12 | FRESH POWER | 11.6% | 8.64 | 8 |
| 4 | 7 | TRIUMPHANT HORSE | 10.3% | 9.74 | 5 |
| 5 | 11 | MONSTER KAKA | 9.9% | 10.11 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | RACING LUCK | 8.7% | 11.50 | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | SMILING CITY | 6.2% | 16.22 | 10 |
| 8 | 4 | RICKFIELD | 5.3% | 18.94 | 1 |
| 9 | 9 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE | 5.1% | 19.58 | 9 |
| 10 | 8 | HARRIER JET | 3.5% | 28.87 | 6 |
| 11 | 10 | EXALTATION | 0.9% | 106.45 | 12 |
| 12 | 3 | ARCATRAZ | 0.8% | 125.69 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 200
PLACE
4 53.5
6 15.5
11 18
QUINELLA
4,6 337.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 111
4,11 161
6,11 36
TIERCE
4,6,11 4,089
TRIO
4,6,11 491
FIRST 4
2,4,6,11 326
QUARTET
4,6,11,2 11,279
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 21
All pools (1 more)
5TH DOUBLE
10/4 1,768
10/6 54.5