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Happy Valley · 2019-12-11

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 11 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-11 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CUE THE MUSIC, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D E Ferraris, won by 1/2, with STARLIGHT second and SHINING ACE third. The 3.4 favourite LE TERROIR finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.09.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 CUE THE MUSIC SR/TT 1.09.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D E Ferraris 5 7.1 1/2
2 10 STARLIGHT U Rispoli · C H Yip 2 18.0 1/2
3 5 SHINING ACE B B Shinn · J Size 3 3.8 1/2
4 7 FIRST RESPONDER CP/TT N Callan · J Moore 1 7.3 3/4
5 8 SEATTLE CHOICE K Teetan · A T Millard 11 65.0 1
6 4 MY DARLING M Chadwick · T P Yung 10 16.0 1
7 9 NORDIC WARRIOR B A Badel · R Gibson 6 10.0 1-1/2
8 6 PRIVATE ROCKET CP/XB S De Sousa · D J Whyte 7 9.7 1-1/2
9 3 LE TERROIR CP/H/XB J Moreira · L Ho 9 3.4 1-3/4
10 12 E MASTER V/XB L Hewitson · C Fownes 8 37.0 2-1/2
11 11 SHANGHAI MASTER C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 35.0 6-1/2
2 TRANSCENDENT H T Mo · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CUE THE MUSIC2. STARLIGHT+0.5L3. SHINING ACE+0.5L4. FIRST RESPONDER+0.75L5. SEATTLE CHOICE+1L6. MY DARLING+1L7. NORDIC WARRIOR+1.5L8. PRIVATE ROCKET+1.5L9. LE TERROIR+1.75L10. E MASTER+2.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick LE TERROIR (24.1%) finished 9th — the winner CUE THE MUSIC was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 LE TERROIR 24.1% 4.15 9
2 5 SHINING ACE 13.9% 7.17 3
3 1 CUE THE MUSIC 12.2% 8.17 1
4 7 FIRST RESPONDER 9.9% 10.07 4
5 6 PRIVATE ROCKET 9.5% 10.51 8
6 9 NORDIC WARRIOR 8.0% 12.45 7
7 4 MY DARLING 6.6% 15.06 6
8 8 SEATTLE CHOICE 5.4% 18.66 5
9 10 STARLIGHT 3.9% 25.61 2
10 11 SHANGHAI MASTER 3.9% 25.75 11
11 12 E MASTER 2.4% 41.03 10
LE TERROIRSHINING ACECUE THE MUSIC — wonFIRST RESPONDERPRIVATE ROCKETNORDIC WARRIORMY DARLINGSEATTLE CHOICESTARLIGHTSHANGHAI MASTERE MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 71

PLACE

1 25.5

5 15.5

10 37.5

QUINELLA

1,10 600

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 51.5

1,10 161.5

5,10 97

TIERCE

1,10,5 3,870

TRIO

1,5,10 536

FIRST 4

1,5,7,10 856

QUARTET

1,10,5,7 26,922

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 20

A3

All pools (3 more)

8TH DOUBLE

1/1 302

1/10 135.5

SIX UP

1,3/1,10/4,6/3,12/1,8/1,10 17,084

3/10/4/3/1/1 2,355,063

5 [M Chadwick]

TREBLE

3/1/1 1,310

3/1/10 607