Happy Valley · 2019-12-11
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-11 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. ISLAND WINNER, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1, with ROMAN ODYSSEY second and EXCEL DELIGHT third. The 2.4 favourite EXCEL DELIGHT finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ISLAND WINNER CP/XB/TT 0.57.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 3 | 3.7 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | ROMAN ODYSSEY TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 4 | 11.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | EXCEL DELIGHT H J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 7 | 2.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | LA BOMBA B/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 11 | 8.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | WHISTLE UP V-/XB- T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 1 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | EXPONENTS V Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 9 | 8.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | JIMSON THE DRAGON B/XB/TT M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 2 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | FLYING MONKEY TT A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 10 | 18.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | BANDY B N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 5 | 81.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | CHARITYDREAM CP/TT H N Wong · W Y So | H N Wong | W Y So | 8 | 129.0 | 7-1/4 |
| — | 2 | EVER STRONG C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | — | — | — |
| — | 8 | CHEEKY BEE L Hewitson · A T Millard | L Hewitson | A T Millard | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EXCEL DELIGHT | 36.4% | 2.75 | 3 |
| 2 | 5 | ISLAND WINNER | 18.3% | 5.48 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | LA BOMBA | 10.4% | 9.64 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | EXPONENTS | 9.7% | 10.35 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | JIMSON THE DRAGON | 5.8% | 17.33 | 7 |
| 6 | 12 | WHISTLE UP | 5.3% | 18.85 | 5 |
| 7 | 10 | ROMAN ODYSSEY | 4.9% | 20.49 | 2 |
| 8 | 3 | FLYING MONKEY | 3.5% | 28.60 | 8 |
| 9 | 11 | CHARITYDREAM | 2.9% | 34.03 | 10 |
| 10 | 7 | BANDY | 2.9% | 34.43 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 37.5
PLACE
1 12
5 15
10 28.5
QUINELLA
5,10 168.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 27.5
1,10 66
5,10 55.5
TIERCE
5,10,1 1,102
TRIO
1,5,10 151
FIRST 4
1,4,5,10 252
QUARTET
5,10,1,4 7,199
3 PICK 1
A1 15
A2 —
A3 —