Happy Valley · 2019-12-11
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. POWERMAX, ridden by Z Purton and trained by R Gibson, won by 3/4, with IRON BOY second and BRILLIANT third. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | POWERMAX B 1.09.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 1 | 3.1 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 6 | IRON BOY B/XB J Moreira · D J Whyte | J Moreira | D J Whyte | 8 | 4.5 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 10 | BRILLIANT H/TT K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 7 | 25.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | LORIZ B C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 6 | 3.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | FOREVER SHARP B-/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 3 | 82.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | LOTUS BREEZE B/XB/TT M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 10 | 26.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | FORTUNE PATROL B/XB1/TT- H W Lai · A T Millard | H W Lai | A T Millard | 5 | 49.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 3 | BRAVE POWER TT1 K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 4 | 20.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | TARGET FINDER H/XB M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 12 | 188.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | NICE FANDANGO H/XB H N Wong · C Fownes | H N Wong | C Fownes | 2 | 10.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | SUCCESS ALLSTARS L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 11 | 85.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | HAPPY HAPPY STAR B H T Mo · K H Ting | H T Mo | K H Ting | 9 | 10.0 | 31-1/2 |
| — | 0 | NEXTMODEL T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | POWERMAX | 24.3% | 4.12 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | IRON BOY | 19.6% | 5.11 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | LORIZ | 17.1% | 5.86 | 4 |
| 4 | 3 | BRAVE POWER | 14.7% | 6.82 | 8 |
| 5 | 12 | HAPPY HAPPY STAR | 6.3% | 15.79 | 12 |
| 6 | 10 | BRILLIANT | 5.0% | 20.05 | 3 |
| 7 | 11 | FORTUNE PATROL | 4.0% | 25.29 | 7 |
| 8 | 8 | LOTUS BREEZE | 3.0% | 32.93 | 6 |
| 9 | 9 | NICE FANDANGO | 2.7% | 37.38 | 10 |
| 10 | 5 | SUCCESS ALLSTARS | 1.3% | 79.17 | 11 |
| 11 | 4 | FOREVER SHARP | 1.2% | 85.51 | 5 |
| 12 | 7 | TARGET FINDER | 1.0% | 96.18 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 31.5
PLACE
2 12
6 16
10 54
QUINELLA
2,6 80.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 30
2,10 142.5
6,10 123.5
TIERCE
2,6,10 1,956
TRIO
2,6,10 351
FIRST 4
1,2,6,10 180
QUARTET
2,6,10,1 4,749
1ST DOUBLE
5/2 157.5
5/6 35
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 18.5