沙田 · 2020-03-08
第 10場
2020-03-08沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD。由M Chadwick策騎、J Moore訓練的COMPUTER PATCH勝出，贏出HD。HONG KONG WIN獲得亞軍；DUKE WAI獲得季軍。3.2倍大熱門DUKE WAI跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | COMPUTER PATCH H-/XB 0.55.11 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M Chadwick · J Moore | M Chadwick | J Moore | 11 | 7.4 | HD |
| 2 | 12 | HONG KONG WIN B J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 7 | 4.7 | HD |
| 3 | 3 | DUKE WAI B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 3.2 | N |
| 4 | 5 | GOLD CHEST CP/TT M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 3 | 37.0 | N |
| 5 | 11 | MULTIMILLION B/TT G van Niekerk · A S Cruz | G van Niekerk | A S Cruz | 14 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | STRONGER CP Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 1 | 3.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | WATER DIVINER B/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 13 | 29.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | MR LUMIERES B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 9 | 40.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | KINGS SHIELD CP K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 4 | 271.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 13 | SHINING ACE B H W Lai · J Size | H W Lai | J Size | 10 | 52.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | REFINED TREASURE B/XB C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 12 | 23.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | RED DESERT H N Wong · J Size | H N Wong | J Size | 8 | 127.0 | 6 |
| 13 | 1 | SAUL'S SPECIAL B/H K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 6 | 30.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 14 | 14 | ELITE PATCH B/H/TT M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 2 | 173.0 | 7-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | HONG KONG WIN | 19.7% | 5.09 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | STRONGER | 19.7% | 5.09 | 6 |
| 3 | 3 | DUKE WAI | 15.8% | 6.35 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | COMPUTER PATCH | 9.5% | 10.53 | 1 |
| 5 | 11 | MULTIMILLION | 5.3% | 18.93 | 5 |
| 6 | 13 | SHINING ACE | 5.1% | 19.80 | 10 |
| 7 | 14 | ELITE PATCH | 4.3% | 23.19 | 14 |
| 8 | 5 | GOLD CHEST | 4.2% | 23.61 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | REFINED TREASURE | 4.1% | 24.29 | 11 |
| 10 | 8 | RED DESERT | 4.1% | 24.66 | 12 |
| 11 | 4 | WATER DIVINER | 3.4% | 29.30 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | MR LUMIERES | 1.8% | 55.25 | 8 |
| 13 | 6 | KINGS SHIELD | 1.7% | 57.40 | 9 |
| 14 | 1 | SAUL'S SPECIAL | 1.4% | 69.93 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 74.5
PLACE
3 14
10 21
12 16.5
QUINELLA
10,12 173.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,10 52.5
3,12 30.5
10,12 56.5
TIERCE
10,12,3 1,140
TRIO
3,10,12 168
FIRST 4
3,5,10,12 710
QUARTET
10,12,3,5 16,366
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 34.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
9TH DOUBLE
7/10 502
7/12 60.5