沙田 · 2020-03-08
第 1場
2020-03-08沙田第1場，Class 5，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由C Wong策騎、K H Ting訓練的SMILING SUCCESS勝出，贏出1-1/4。WINWIN THIRTYTHREE獲得亞軍；BIG BULLY獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。3.0倍大熱門THE FULL BLOOM跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SMILING SUCCESS 一路領先 B/TT 1.22.71 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Wong · K H Ting | C Wong | K H Ting | 13 | 7.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 後段發力 B J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 10 | 3.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 13 | BIG BULLY 後段發力 B/TT B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 2 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | THE FULL BLOOM 後段發力 TT1 Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 1 | 3.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | HUMBLE STEED M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 7 | 196.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 12 | GOLDEN CANNON 後段發力 B/H/XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 13.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | VICTORY SONG K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 95.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 14 | BLAZING PARTNERS 後段發力 SR N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 12 | 19.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | TURF BRILLIANT 後段發力 B1 H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 4 | 84.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | WONDER WIN H-/P K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 5 | 9.9 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | AEROFLASH CP1 M F Poon · J Moore | M F Poon | J Moore | 6 | 36.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 6 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE P C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 9 | 27.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 13 | 3 | SPIRIT PATCH B K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 11 | 12.0 | 12 |
| 14 | 8 | THE JOY OF GIVING B H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 14 | 136.0 | 20 |
| — | 0 | EXPONENTS G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE | 22.8% | 4.38 | 2 |
| 2 | 10 | THE FULL BLOOM | 18.7% | 5.36 | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | SMILING SUCCESS | 16.2% | 6.19 | 1 |
| 4 | 13 | BIG BULLY | 9.2% | 10.84 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE | 5.9% | 16.98 | 12 |
| 6 | 3 | SPIRIT PATCH | 5.6% | 17.97 | 13 |
| 7 | 12 | GOLDEN CANNON | 4.1% | 24.53 | 6 |
| 8 | 14 | BLAZING PARTNERS | 3.9% | 25.47 | 8 |
| 9 | 8 | THE JOY OF GIVING | 3.4% | 29.14 | 14 |
| 10 | 9 | AEROFLASH | 2.7% | 37.62 | 11 |
| 11 | 4 | TURF BRILLIANT | 2.4% | 41.28 | 9 |
| 12 | 5 | HUMBLE STEED | 2.0% | 50.58 | 5 |
| 13 | 2 | WONDER WIN | 1.7% | 60.55 | 10 |
| 14 | 11 | VICTORY SONG | 1.5% | 66.00 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 74.5
PLACE
1 16.5
7 25.5
13 28.5
QUINELLA
1,7 187.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,7 67
1,13 67
7,13 147.5
TIERCE
7,1,13 2,814
TRIO
1,7,13 398
FIRST 4
1,7,10,13 273
QUARTET
7,1,13,10 9,915
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 35.5