跑馬地 · 2020-09-09
第 4場
2020-09-09跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、C S Shum訓練的HARMONY N HOME勝出，贏出1-3/4。SIMPLY FLUKE獲得亞軍；HARRIER JET獲得季軍。3.6倍大熱門SIMPLY FLUKE跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | HARMONY N HOME 1.09.93 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 1 | 4.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | SIMPLY FLUKE H/P/XB A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 2 | 3.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | HARRIER JET B A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan | A Hamelin | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 35.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | SPARKLING STAR TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 4 | 5.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | THE ABRAXAS B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 8 | 9.5 | 5 |
| 6 | 11 | STARLIGHT C Schofield · C H Yip | C Schofield | C H Yip | 3 | 21.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | DESTINE JEWELLERY V M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 5 | 22.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 4 | WINNING FEELING B N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 12 | 23.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | THIS IS CHARISMA B/H J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 7 | 13.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | MOMENTUM HAPPY B K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 11 | 6.2 | 8 |
| 11 | 6 | BULLISH BROTHER B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 9 | 21.0 | 10 |
| 12 | 7 | ALLOY STAR B1 V Borges · T P Yung | V Borges | T P Yung | 10 | 180.0 | 13-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | HARMONY N HOME | 19.9% | 5.03 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 17.0% | 5.88 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | THIS IS CHARISMA | 13.9% | 7.19 | 9 |
| 4 | 9 | SPARKLING STAR | 10.3% | 9.71 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | MOMENTUM HAPPY | 7.9% | 12.60 | 10 |
| 6 | 6 | BULLISH BROTHER | 7.3% | 13.70 | 11 |
| 7 | 8 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 6.1% | 16.43 | 7 |
| 8 | 12 | THE ABRAXAS | 5.3% | 18.77 | 5 |
| 9 | 1 | HARRIER JET | 4.5% | 22.00 | 3 |
| 10 | 11 | STARLIGHT | 3.4% | 29.43 | 6 |
| 11 | 4 | WINNING FEELING | 3.0% | 33.15 | 8 |
| 12 | 7 | ALLOY STAR | 1.3% | 76.35 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 46
PLACE
1 82
2 15.5
3 15.5
QUINELLA
2,3 88.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 200
1,3 173.5
2,3 32.5
FORECAST
2,3 161
TIERCE
2,3,1 2,700
TRIO
1,2,3 643
FIRST 4
1,2,3,9 693
QUARTET
2,3,1,9 14,562
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,7/1,2,3 19,814
3 PICK 1
A1 20.5
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
4/2 1,594
4/3 276