Happy Valley · 2020-09-09
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | HARMONY N HOME 1.09.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 1 | 4.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 0 | SIMPLY FLUKE H/P/XB A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 2 | 3.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 0 | HARRIER JET B A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan | A Hamelin | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 35.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | SPARKLING STAR TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 4 | 5.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | THE ABRAXAS B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 8 | 9.5 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | STARLIGHT C Schofield · C H Yip | C Schofield | C H Yip | 3 | 21.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | DESTINE JEWELLERY V M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 5 | 22.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 0 | WINNING FEELING B N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 12 | 23.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | THIS IS CHARISMA B/H J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 7 | 13.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | MOMENTUM HAPPY B K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 11 | 6.2 | 8 |
| 11 | 0 | BULLISH BROTHER B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 9 | 21.0 | 10 |
| 12 | 0 | ALLOY STAR B1 V Borges · T P Yung | V Borges | T P Yung | 10 | 180.0 | 13-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-09-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HARMONY N HOME, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-3/4, with SIMPLY FLUKE second and HARRIER JET third. The 3.6 favourite SIMPLY FLUKE finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | HARMONY N HOME | 19.9% | 5.03 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 17.0% | 5.88 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | THIS IS CHARISMA | 13.9% | 7.19 | 9 |
| 4 | 0 | SPARKLING STAR | 10.3% | 9.71 | 4 |
| 5 | 0 | MOMENTUM HAPPY | 7.9% | 12.60 | 10 |
| 6 | 0 | BULLISH BROTHER | 7.3% | 13.70 | 11 |
| 7 | 0 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 6.1% | 16.43 | 7 |
| 8 | 0 | THE ABRAXAS | 5.3% | 18.77 | 5 |
| 9 | 0 | HARRIER JET | 4.5% | 22.00 | 3 |
| 10 | 0 | STARLIGHT | 3.4% | 29.43 | 6 |
| 11 | 0 | WINNING FEELING | 3.0% | 33.15 | 8 |
| 12 | 0 | ALLOY STAR | 1.3% | 76.35 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 46
PLACE
1 82
2 15.5
3 15.5
QUINELLA
2,3 88.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 200
1,3 173.5
2,3 32.5
FORECAST
2,3 161
TIERCE
2,3,1 2,700
TRIO
1,2,3 643
FIRST 4
1,2,3,9 693
QUARTET
2,3,1,9 14,562
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,7/1,2,3 19,814
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 20.5
3RD DOUBLE
4/2 1,594
4/3 276