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Happy Valley · 2020-09-09

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 11 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2020-09-09 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA RAD, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with HARDLY SWEARS second and VICTORY POWER third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.30
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT 1.09.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz 6 2.3 1-1/4
2 7 HARDLY SWEARS H A Badel · K H Ting 4 10.0 1-1/4
3 8 VICTORY POWER B/XB C Schofield · D J Whyte 2 8.9 2
4 9 MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT V Borges · W Y So 11 80.0 2-3/4
5 11 CALIFORNIA LEVEE B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 3 40.0 2-3/4
6 3 SACRED IBIS XB C Wong · A T Millard 10 60.0 4-1/4
7 5 AURORA PEGASUS TT Z Purton · C Fownes 1 5.2 4-1/4
8 10 TRIPLE TRIPLE B1 J Moreira · F C Lor 8 7.7 4-1/2
9 4 CUE THE MUSIC SR/TT N Callan · D E Ferraris 5 15.0 6-1/2
10 2 LITTLE BIRD V A Hamelin · P F Yiu 7 12.0 7
11 6 FLYING BONUS B1 K H Chan · C H Yip 9 17.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CALIFORNIA RAD2. HARDLY SWEARS+1.25L3. VICTORY POWER+2L4. MASTER ALBERT+2.75L5. CALIFORNIA LEVEE+2.75L6. SACRED IBIS+4.25L7. AURORA PEGASUS+4.25L8. TRIPLE TRIPLE+4.5L9. CUE THE MUSIC+6.5L10. LITTLE BIRD+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick CALIFORNIA RAD (21.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 CALIFORNIA RAD 21.7% 4.60 1
2 10 TRIPLE TRIPLE 21.2% 4.72 8
3 5 AURORA PEGASUS 11.7% 8.57 7
4 8 VICTORY POWER 8.8% 11.40 3
5 11 CALIFORNIA LEVEE 6.6% 15.21 5
6 7 HARDLY SWEARS 6.1% 16.36 2
7 6 FLYING BONUS 5.6% 17.77 11
8 3 SACRED IBIS 5.4% 18.52 6
9 4 CUE THE MUSIC 4.7% 21.40 9
10 2 LITTLE BIRD 4.4% 22.63 10
11 9 MASTER ALBERT 3.8% 26.03 4
CALIFORNIA RAD — wonTRIPLE TRIPLEAURORA PEGASUSVICTORY POWERCALIFORNIA LEVEEHARDLY SWEARSFLYING BONUSSACRED IBISCUE THE MUSICLITTLE BIRDMASTER ALBERT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 23

PLACE

1 12

7 28

8 25.5

QUINELLA

1,7 134

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 51

1,8 42.5

7,8 119

FORECAST

1,7 170

TIERCE

1,7,8 1,104

TRIO

1,7,8 304

FIRST 4

1,7,8,9 2,311

QUARTET

1,7,8,9 23,048

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 16

6TH DOUBLE

1/1 119.5

1/7 105