Happy Valley · 2020-09-09
Race 6
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | ALPHA HEDGE Wire to wire CP 1.39.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 3 | 3.7 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | FLYING SWORD Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 5 | 5.6 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | REEL BIZZY B C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 1 | 8.5 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | LIGHTNING STEED TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 2 | 2.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | NAMJONG PLUS Closed strongly C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 6 | 26.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | BEST ALLIANCE Closed strongly XB A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 11 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | DIVINE UNICORN TT N Callan · W Y So | N Callan | W Y So | 9 | 42.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | TOYCOON Closed strongly CP-/XB2 V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 12 | 17.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | XANTHUS H1/PC1/TT1 B Shinn · R Gibson | B Shinn | R Gibson | 7 | 182.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | SURREALISM B A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 8 | 22.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 0 | FUN LEGEND H W Lai · R Gibson | H W Lai | R Gibson | 4 | 267.0 | 12 |
| — | 0 | URBAN DANCER M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-09-09 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. ALPHA HEDGE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 2, with FLYING SWORD second and REEL BIZZY third. The winner led throughout. The 2.4 favourite LIGHTNING STEED finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | LIGHTNING STEED | 26.4% | 3.78 | 4 |
| 2 | 0 | ALPHA HEDGE | 22.4% | 4.46 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | FLYING SWORD | 19.2% | 5.21 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | REEL BIZZY | 7.5% | 13.41 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | NAMJONG PLUS | 5.9% | 17.08 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | BEST ALLIANCE | 5.4% | 18.43 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | TOYCOON | 4.4% | 22.81 | 8 |
| 8 | 0 | DIVINE UNICORN | 3.7% | 27.22 | 7 |
| 9 | 0 | SURREALISM | 3.6% | 28.11 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | XANTHUS | 1.1% | 89.13 | 9 |
| 11 | 0 | FUN LEGEND | 0.5% | 202.10 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 37.5
PLACE
1 14
2 27
4 17.5
QUINELLA
1,4 110.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 50.5
1,4 37
2,4 78.5
FORECAST
1,4 202
TIERCE
1,4,2 1,217
TRIO
1,2,4 273
FIRST 4
1,2,4,10 117
QUARTET
1,4,2,10 3,390
All pools (5 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,6,11/1,2,4 30,904
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 15
5TH DOUBLE
11/1 425
11/4 132
TRIPLE TRIO
1,2,3/1,6,11/1,2,4 2,659,630
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,2,3/1,6,11/Any Combination 8,239