Happy Valley · 2020-09-09
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-09-09 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. WINS ALL, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W Y So, won by 2, with GOUTEN OF GARO second and FLYING MONKEY third. The 4.9 favourite GOUTEN OF GARO finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | WINS ALL CP-/TT1 0.57.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 1 | 6.3 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | GOUTEN OF GARO B/TT N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 2 | 4.9 | 2 |
| 3 | 11 | FLYING MONKEY BO-/TT A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 10 | 13.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | AURORA STEED V Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 11 | 5.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | BEAUT BEAUT H/V/TT1 C L Chau · L Ho | C L Chau | L Ho | 5 | 7.8 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | LA BOMBA B2/TT J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 12 | 6.9 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | SHOW MISSION B M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 7 | 14.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | APOLLOS BOW C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 9 | 25.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | MASTERWORK B H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 4 | 73.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | HARBOUR ALERT CP/TT M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 3 | 22.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | YEE CHEONG LUCKY B A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 8 | 11.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | ISLAND WINNER CO-/CP2/XB2/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 6 | 13.0 | 7 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | AURORA STEED | 18.7% | 5.35 | 4 |
| 2 | 9 | LA BOMBA | 11.9% | 8.42 | 6 |
| 3 | 2 | YEE CHEONG LUCKY | 11.3% | 8.85 | 11 |
| 4 | 12 | HARBOUR ALERT | 9.1% | 10.98 | 10 |
| 5 | 5 | GOUTEN OF GARO | 9.0% | 11.09 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | BEAUT BEAUT | 9.0% | 11.13 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | FLYING MONKEY | 8.5% | 11.83 | 3 |
| 8 | 10 | SHOW MISSION | 6.5% | 15.48 | 7 |
| 9 | 7 | ISLAND WINNER | 5.5% | 18.15 | 12 |
| 10 | 3 | MASTERWORK | 3.6% | 27.82 | 9 |
| 11 | 6 | APOLLOS BOW | 3.5% | 28.51 | 8 |
| 12 | 4 | WINS ALL | 3.5% | 28.58 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 63
PLACE
4 23
5 17
11 44
QUINELLA
4,5 182.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 63
4,11 156
5,11 119.5
FORECAST
4,5 278
TIERCE
4,5,11 4,086
TRIO
4,5,11 831
FIRST 4
4,5,8,11 1,240
QUARTET
4,5,11,8 25,031
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 20.5
A1 —
A2 —