Happy Valley · 2020-09-09
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-09-09 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FAITHFUL TRINITY, ridden by V Borges and trained by W Y So, won by 1-1/4, with CHARITY GRAND second and LADY FIRST third. The winner led throughout. The 4.4 favourite LADY FIRST finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | FAITHFUL TRINITY Wire to wire P-/H/TT 1.40.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 6 | 8.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 6 | CHARITY GRAND Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 1 | 5.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 9 | LADY FIRST H/XB/CP1/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 2 | 4.4 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | UNIVERSAL GO GO B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 4.7 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | PERFECT TO PLAY Closed strongly V-/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 3 | 4.7 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | ELECTRIC LIGHTNING Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 5 | 17.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | EVEN KEEL B1/XB1 K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 4 | 18.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 1 | RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/P/TT C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 11 | 27.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | INDIGENOUS STAR Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 7 | 36.0 | 10 |
| 10 | 4 | BIG BANG BONG TT K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 8 | 17.0 | 12 |
| 11 | 8 | HAR HAR HEART Closed strongly M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 12 | 74.0 | 13 |
| 12 | 11 | BULB ELITE H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 10 | 54.0 | 17-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CHARITY GRAND | 21.0% | 4.75 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | LADY FIRST | 17.4% | 5.75 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | UNIVERSAL GO GO | 12.7% | 7.86 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 12.4% | 8.04 | 5 |
| 5 | 7 | ELECTRIC LIGHTNING | 9.4% | 10.65 | 6 |
| 6 | 4 | BIG BANG BONG | 5.8% | 17.15 | 10 |
| 7 | 2 | INDIGENOUS STAR | 5.1% | 19.57 | 9 |
| 8 | 8 | HAR HAR HEART | 4.5% | 22.09 | 11 |
| 9 | 12 | FAITHFUL TRINITY | 4.5% | 22.09 | 1 |
| 10 | 1 | RIGHT HONOURABLE | 4.2% | 24.09 | 8 |
| 11 | 10 | EVEN KEEL | 2.1% | 48.24 | 7 |
| 12 | 11 | BULB ELITE | 0.8% | 124.27 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 83.5
PLACE
6 21.5
9 16
12 27.5
QUINELLA
6,12 303
QUINELLA PLACE
6,9 59
6,12 104.5
9,12 62.5
FORECAST
12,6 679
TIERCE
12,6,9 2,544
TRIO
6,9,12 410
FIRST 4
3,6,9,12 438
QUARTET
12,6,9,3 12,616
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
4/6 58.5
4/12 269
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 19
A3 —