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Happy Valley · 2020-09-09

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 0.57.04
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MOMENTUM GALAXY B 0.57.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K H Ting 6 29.0 3/4
2 0 NEXTMODEL H/TT Z Purton · T P Yung 11 2.4 3/4
3 0 WILD WEST WING J Moreira · J Size 4 4.7 1-1/4
4 0 G UNIT C Schofield · D A Hayes 5 6.9 2-1/2
5 0 WINNING WAYS H/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 12 41.0 3
6 0 SEVENTH SEA SR A Badel · D E Ferraris 7 49.0 3-1/2
7 0 FORZA ANGEL B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 9 6.9 3-3/4
8 0 FOR FUN'S SAKE CP-/XB-/H1 C Wong · C Fownes 8 53.0 5-1/4
9 0 PRECIOUS SWEETIE H/V1/TT M F Poon · L Ho 1 10.0 5-1/4
10 0 EVERBRAVE B1 A Hamelin · K L Man 3 10.0 5-1/2
11 0 WONDER BRAHMA H H N Wong · D J Hall 10 127.0 5-3/4
12 0 PLANET FLYER B1 M L Yeung · W Y So 2 156.0 16

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-09-09 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. MOMENTUM GALAXY, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K H Ting, won by 3/4, with NEXTMODEL second and WILD WEST WING third. The 2.4 favourite NEXTMODEL finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MOMENTUM GALAXY—2. NEXTMODEL+0.75L3. WILD WEST WING+1.25L4. G UNIT+2.5L5. WINNING WAYS+3L6. SEVENTH SEA+3.5L7. FORZA ANGEL+3.75L8. FOR FUN'S SAKE+5.25L9. PRECIOUS SWEETIE+5.25L10. EVERBRAVE+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick NEXTMODEL (24.4%) finished 2nd — the winner MOMENTUM GALAXY was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 NEXTMODEL 24.4% 4.10 2
2 0 WILD WEST WING 22.2% 4.51 3
3 0 EVERBRAVE 10.3% 9.75 10
4 0 PRECIOUS SWEETIE 9.5% 10.57 9
5 0 G UNIT 9.1% 10.95 4
6 0 FORZA ANGEL 7.8% 12.77 7
7 0 MOMENTUM GALAXY 6.7% 14.89 1
8 0 SEVENTH SEA 3.4% 29.72 6
9 0 WINNING WAYS 2.1% 46.67 5
10 0 WONDER BRAHMA 2.0% 49.76 11
11 0 FOR FUN'S SAKE 1.7% 57.23 8
12 0 PLANET FLYER 0.8% 125.89 12
NEXTMODELWILD WEST WINGEVERBRAVEPRECIOUS SWEETIEG UNITFORZA ANGELMOMENTUM GALAXY — wonSEVENTH SEAWINNING WAYSWONDER BRAHMAFOR FUN'S SAKEPLANET FLYER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 294.5

PLACE

1 12.5

4 59.5

7 16.5

QUINELLA

1,4 322.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 108.5

1,7 30

4,7 147

FORECAST

4,1 985

TIERCE

4,1,7 4,790

TRIO

1,4,7 418

FIRST 4

1,2,4,7 443

QUARTET

4,1,7,2 18,959

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

12/1 45.5

12/4 2,181

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 49