跑馬地 · 2020-09-09
第 8場
2020-09-09跑馬地第8場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、C Fownes訓練的GUY DRAGON勝出，贏出3/4。FIRST RESPONDER獲得亞軍；CANTSTOPTHEFEELING獲得季軍。2.9倍大熱門FANTASY跑獲第11名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GUY DRAGON XB/TT 1.09.64 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 5 | 4.2 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 11 | FIRST RESPONDER B C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 9 | 26.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 10 | CANTSTOPTHEFEELING B/TT A Badel · K H Ting | A Badel | K H Ting | 10 | 8.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 12 | MEHBOOB XB M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 45.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | STANLEY PARK V-/B1 N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 8 | 25.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | WINNING ENDEAVOUR H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 7 | 54.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | WEALTHY DELIGHT E1 A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 11 | 140.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | KEEP YOU WARM B/XB M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 4 | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | CALIFORNIA GUNGHO B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 6 | 14.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | LORIZ V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 2 | 9.3 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | FANTASY B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 1 | 2.9 | 5 |
| 12 | 3 | POISED TO STRIKE B- B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 3 | 6.9 | 6 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | FANTASY | 30.2% | 3.31 | 11 |
| 2 | 5 | GUY DRAGON | 18.0% | 5.54 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | LORIZ | 13.4% | 7.48 | 10 |
| 4 | 7 | KEEP YOU WARM | 7.4% | 13.47 | 8 |
| 5 | 2 | CALIFORNIA GUNGHO | 6.3% | 15.81 | 9 |
| 6 | 10 | CANTSTOPTHEFEELING | 5.2% | 19.22 | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | STANLEY PARK | 4.2% | 23.77 | 5 |
| 8 | 11 | FIRST RESPONDER | 4.1% | 24.67 | 2 |
| 9 | 12 | MEHBOOB | 3.4% | 29.11 | 4 |
| 10 | 6 | WEALTHY DELIGHT | 3.2% | 31.07 | 7 |
| 11 | 9 | WINNING ENDEAVOUR | 3.1% | 32.44 | 6 |
| 12 | 3 | POISED TO STRIKE | 1.4% | 71.29 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 42.5
PLACE
5 16.5
10 27.5
11 59
QUINELLA
5,11 451
QUINELLA PLACE
5,10 73
5,11 157
10,11 290.5
FORECAST
5,11 955
TIERCE
5,11,10 5,204
TRIO
5,10,11 1,484
FIRST 4
5,10,11,12 5,320
QUARTET
5,11,10,12 60,027
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 17.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,7,8/5,10,11 63,944
7TH DOUBLE
1/5 96
1/11 115
SIX UP
1,4/2,3/1,11/1,4/1,7/5,11 2,066
4/2/11/1/1/5 429,342
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
1/1/5 387
1/1/11 623