跑馬地 · 2020-11-18
第 9場
2020-11-18跑馬地第9場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由A Badel策騎、C Fownes訓練的GUY DRAGON勝出，贏出SH。SCORES OF FUN獲得亞軍；STANLEY PARK獲得季軍。3.6倍大熱門SCORES OF FUN跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GUY DRAGON XB/TT 1.09.33 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 3 | 4.2 | SH |
| 2 | 6 | SCORES OF FUN TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 4 | 3.6 | SH |
| 3 | 1 | STANLEY PARK B C L Chau · D E Ferraris | C L Chau | D E Ferraris | 1 | 4.1 | N |
| 4 | 8 | MEHBOOB XB/B1 M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 31.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 7 | THE RUNNER SR C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 9 | 6.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | NEXTMODEL H/TT V Borges · T P Yung | V Borges | T P Yung | 2 | 15.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | GOOD BEAUTY B/TT N Callan · K L Man | N Callan | K L Man | 10 | 102.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | AMARA WIN T Piccone · P F Yiu | T Piccone | P F Yiu | 6 | 91.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 5 | EXCEED THE STARS B Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 8 | 13.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | XPONENTIAL SR K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 7 | 12.0 | 8 |
| 10 | 10 | CHIKORITA XB M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 12 | 123.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 11 | FLYING ON THE TURF B/TT H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 5 | 48.0 | 16-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | STANLEY PARK | 32.8% | 3.05 | 3 |
| 2 | 6 | SCORES OF FUN | 26.7% | 3.75 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | GUY DRAGON | 8.0% | 12.54 | 1 |
| 4 | 7 | THE RUNNER | 7.1% | 14.12 | 5 |
| 5 | 8 | MEHBOOB | 5.6% | 17.72 | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | EXCEED THE STARS | 4.5% | 22.45 | 9 |
| 7 | 9 | XPONENTIAL | 4.4% | 22.65 | 10 |
| 8 | 12 | NEXTMODEL | 4.3% | 22.99 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | AMARA WIN | 2.1% | 46.73 | 8 |
| 10 | 10 | CHIKORITA | 2.1% | 47.52 | 10 |
| 11 | 11 | FLYING ON THE TURF | 1.5% | 64.81 | 12 |
| 12 | 4 | GOOD BEAUTY | 0.8% | 118.66 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 42.5
PLACE
1 16
2 15
6 16
QUINELLA
2,6 90.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 30.5
1,6 34.5
2,6 35.5
FORECAST
2,6 212
TIERCE
2,6,1 518
TRIO
1,2,6 68
FIRST 4
1,2,6,8 277
QUARTET
2,6,1,8 5,884
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 21
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
4,10,11/1,2,6 6,119
8TH DOUBLE
11/2 367.5
11/6 53.5
SIX UP
4,5/2,11/2,11/5,7/4,11/2,6 1,695
5/2/2/5/11/2 172,655
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
5/11/2 2,809
5/11/6 331