跑馬地 · 2020-12-02
第 4場
2020-12-02跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、C Fownes訓練的CHAMP PATROL勝出，贏出1-1/2。PHENOMENAL COMBO獲得亞軍；SHINING ON獲得季軍。3.5倍大熱門PEGASUS GLORY跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CHAMP PATROL H 1.10.65 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 3 | 6.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | PHENOMENAL COMBO N Callan · C H Yip | N Callan | C H Yip | 6 | 35.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | SHINING ON C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 16.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | ORIENTAL AMIGO B1 C Schofield · Y S Tsui | C Schofield | Y S Tsui | 4 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | PEGASUS GLORY K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 10 | 3.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | MAGIC SUPREME XB-/CP/TT K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 8 | 58.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | LITTLE PLAYER K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 2 | 5.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | SPEED TO EXCEED H- M L Yeung · D J Hall | M L Yeung | D J Hall | 7 | 177.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | SMART WONGCHOY XB-/B2 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 12 | 6.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | LITTLE THUNDER B C Wong · A T Millard | C Wong | A T Millard | 1 | 8.3 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | HAPPY TIME TT B Shinn · W Y So | B Shinn | W Y So | 9 | 10.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 3 | AMAZING KNIGHT B A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 5 | 70.0 | 9 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PEGASUS GLORY | 30.8% | 3.25 | 5 |
| 2 | 6 | CHAMP PATROL | 17.8% | 5.63 | 1 |
| 3 | 10 | SMART WONGCHOY | 10.7% | 9.34 | 9 |
| 4 | 9 | SHINING ON | 9.9% | 10.08 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | LITTLE PLAYER | 9.6% | 10.38 | 7 |
| 6 | 12 | LITTLE THUNDER | 6.6% | 15.11 | 10 |
| 7 | 8 | PHENOMENAL COMBO | 3.4% | 29.41 | 2 |
| 8 | 4 | MAGIC SUPREME | 3.2% | 31.60 | 6 |
| 9 | 5 | HAPPY TIME | 3.1% | 32.01 | 11 |
| 10 | 3 | AMAZING KNIGHT | 2.6% | 38.91 | 12 |
| 11 | 2 | ORIENTAL AMIGO | 1.7% | 57.31 | 4 |
| 12 | 11 | SPEED TO EXCEED | 0.6% | 168.11 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 65.5
PLACE
6 21
8 79.5
9 34.5
QUINELLA
6,8 1,146
QUINELLA PLACE
6,8 304.5
6,9 147.5
8,9 511.5
FORECAST
6,8 2,144
TIERCE
6,8,9 18,610
TRIO
6,8,9 4,156
FIRST 4
2,6,8,9 8,384
QUARTET
6,8,9,2 174,699
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2>4,9,10/6,8,9 103,349
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 32
3RD DOUBLE
9,10/6 266.5
9,10/8 218.5