沙田 · 2020-12-13
第 1場
2020-12-13沙田第1場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、D A Hayes訓練的MASTER MONTARO勝出，贏出N。SUPER DOBBIN獲得亞軍；TRUST ME獲得季軍。頭馬以2.2倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | MASTER MONTARO B1/XB1 1.08.97 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 10 | 2.2 | N |
| 2 | 3 | SUPER DOBBIN B C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 8 | 7.5 | N |
| 3 | 13 | TRUST ME H M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 4 | 7.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | REGENCY BO BO B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 13 | 38.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED B K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 6 | 9.2 | 2 |
| 6 | 5 | TRANSCENDENT TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 9 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 14 | HELLO BEAUTY B/TT V Borges · K L Man | V Borges | K L Man | 7 | 34.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 11 | WINNING BREW J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 11 | 8.7 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | SUNSET WATCH C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 9.2 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | SOULMATE A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 2 | 91.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | SHADOW RUNNER K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 14 | 70.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | NOIR RIDER SR1 T Marquand · T P Yung | T Marquand | T P Yung | 12 | 189.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 13 | 1 | SMART FOLKS XB T Piccone · C W Chang | T Piccone | C W Chang | 3 | 209.0 | 12 |
| 14 | 7 | MING WARRIOR TT1 A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 1 | 102.0 | 14-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | WINNING BREW | 32.9% | 3.04 | 8 |
| 2 | 2 | SUNSET WATCH | 12.1% | 8.26 | 9 |
| 3 | 6 | MASTER MONTARO | 11.8% | 8.49 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED | 10.0% | 10.05 | 5 |
| 5 | 13 | TRUST ME | 6.8% | 14.72 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | TRANSCENDENT | 6.5% | 15.35 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | SUPER DOBBIN | 4.2% | 23.80 | 2 |
| 8 | 4 | REGENCY BO BO | 3.5% | 28.68 | 4 |
| 9 | 14 | HELLO BEAUTY | 3.3% | 30.10 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | MING WARRIOR | 3.0% | 33.89 | 14 |
| 11 | 9 | SOULMATE | 2.7% | 36.43 | 10 |
| 12 | 8 | NOIR RIDER | 2.0% | 50.03 | 12 |
| 13 | 1 | SMART FOLKS | 0.7% | 140.19 | 13 |
| 14 | 10 | SHADOW RUNNER | 0.5% | 199.23 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 22.5
PLACE
3 24
6 14
13 21
QUINELLA
3,6 98.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 46
3,13 83
6,13 41
FORECAST
6,3 169
TIERCE
6,3,13 812
TRIO
3,6,13 269
FIRST 4
3,4,6,13 1,703
QUARTET
6,3,13,4 17,603
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 18
A2 —