沙田 · 2020-12-13
第 10場
2020-12-13沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由C Y Ho策騎、C S Shum訓練的TOURBILLON DIAMOND勝出，贏出N。CIRCUIT THREE獲得亞軍；SHADOW HERO獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.9倍大熱門SHADOW HERO跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND 後段發力 B/TT 1.34.53 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 2 | 5.3 | N |
| 2 | 12 | CIRCUIT THREE 後段發力 B/TT V Borges · A S Cruz | V Borges | A S Cruz | 8 | 7.9 | N |
| 3 | 5 | SHADOW HERO 後段發力 B Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 3 | 2.9 | 3 |
| 4 | 11 | NICCONI EXPRESS 後段發力 P K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 1 | 9.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | NOT USUAL TALENT 後段發力 TT T Piccone · T P Yung | T Piccone | T P Yung | 7 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | SOLAR WAI WAI K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 4 | 35.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | ASSIMILATE 後段發力 B/TT T Marquand · K H Ting | T Marquand | K H Ting | 6 | 15.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 2 | SUPER OASIS 後段發力 B/XB M Barzalona · P F Yiu | M Barzalona | P F Yiu | 14 | 20.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | ELITE PATCH 早段領放 B/H/TT M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 9 | 56.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | THE SUMMIT 後段發力 J Moreira · D A Hayes | J Moreira | D A Hayes | 12 | 23.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 1 | PRECIOUSSHIP 後段發力 XB M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 13 | 54.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 13 | STAR PERFORMANCE TT H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 11 | 36.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 14 | VITRALITE H1/XB1 A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 10 | 38.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 14 | 6 | SUPER WEALTHY H R Moore · D J Whyte | R Moore | D J Whyte | 5 | 8.5 | 10-1/2 |
| — | 0 | ENRICH DELIGHT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SHADOW HERO | 17.5% | 5.70 | 3 |
| 2 | 6 | SUPER WEALTHY | 13.1% | 7.64 | 14 |
| 3 | 9 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND | 11.6% | 8.60 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | THE SUMMIT | 10.6% | 9.41 | 10 |
| 5 | 12 | CIRCUIT THREE | 9.0% | 11.12 | 2 |
| 6 | 8 | SOLAR WAI WAI | 7.4% | 13.51 | 6 |
| 7 | 10 | ELITE PATCH | 5.2% | 19.08 | 9 |
| 8 | 13 | STAR PERFORMANCE | 5.1% | 19.44 | 12 |
| 9 | 2 | SUPER OASIS | 4.1% | 24.12 | 8 |
| 10 | 3 | NOT USUAL TALENT | 4.1% | 24.45 | 5 |
| 11 | 11 | NICCONI EXPRESS | 3.9% | 25.65 | 4 |
| 12 | 1 | PRECIOUSSHIP | 3.2% | 31.59 | 11 |
| 13 | 7 | ASSIMILATE | 2.6% | 39.21 | 7 |
| 14 | 14 | VITRALITE | 2.5% | 40.04 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 53.5
PLACE
5 15.5
9 18
12 27.5
QUINELLA
9,12 180.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 36.5
5,12 58
9,12 69
FORECAST
9,12 423
TIERCE
9,12,5 1,325
TRIO
5,9,12 242
FIRST 4
5,9,11,12 310
QUARTET
9,12,5,11 6,756
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 19
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,10/5,9,12 26,900
9TH DOUBLE
3/9 87
3/12 37
SIX UP
5/5/2/8/3/9 80,159
5,11/5,7/2,5/3,8/3,10/9,12 12,332
1 [C Y Ho] —
TREBLE
8/3/9 1,002
8/3/12 390