沙田 · 2020-12-13
第 6場
2020-12-13沙田第6場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由M F Poon策騎、K W Lui訓練的LUCKY PATCH勝出，贏出1-1/4。SUPER FOOTBALL獲得亞軍；BELUGA獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LUCKY PATCH 後段發力 B/H 1.21.63 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 7 | 3.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | SUPER FOOTBALL 後段發力 Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 1 | 8.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | BELUGA 早段領放 H J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 13 | 7.6 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 13 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 8 | 61.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | TRUE LEGEND 後段發力 CP-/B1 A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 14 | 6.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | PURE LEGEND 後段發力 V C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 11 | 7.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | SPLENDOUR AND GOLD 後段發力 C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 2 | 71.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 後段發力 M Barzalona · C W Chang | M Barzalona | C W Chang | 5 | 14.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | LEWIS B1/XB1 K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 6 | 32.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT W Buick · A S Cruz | W Buick | A S Cruz | 10 | 42.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 1 | HEZA BEAUTY E N Callan · J Size | N Callan | J Size | 3 | 5.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | A A AGILITY 後段發力 TT1 H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 346.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 13 | 14 | SO WE JOY CP M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 4 | 33.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 14 | 6 | SHINY ONE B1 V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 12 | 181.0 | 13-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | BELUGA | 21.5% | 4.65 | 3 |
| 2 | 5 | LUCKY PATCH | 16.0% | 6.26 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | HEZA BEAUTY | 13.7% | 7.32 | 11 |
| 4 | 12 | TRUE LEGEND | 12.6% | 7.97 | 5 |
| 5 | 7 | SUPER FOOTBALL | 7.0% | 14.21 | 2 |
| 6 | 4 | LEWIS | 6.5% | 15.41 | 9 |
| 7 | 14 | SO WE JOY | 4.6% | 21.67 | 13 |
| 8 | 2 | SPLENDOUR AND GOLD | 4.3% | 23.07 | 7 |
| 9 | 3 | BEAUTY SPIRIT | 2.9% | 34.34 | 10 |
| 10 | 9 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE | 2.8% | 36.00 | 8 |
| 11 | 10 | PURE LEGEND | 2.7% | 37.30 | 6 |
| 12 | 6 | SHINY ONE | 2.6% | 38.83 | 14 |
| 13 | 13 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE | 2.5% | 40.81 | 4 |
| 14 | 8 | A A AGILITY | 0.5% | 219.84 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 37
PLACE
5 15
7 29.5
11 25
QUINELLA
5,7 172.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 61.5
5,11 53
7,11 122.5
FORECAST
5,7 363
TIERCE
5,7,11 1,959
TRIO
5,7,11 483
FIRST 4
5,7,11,13 4,211
QUARTET
5,7,11,13 56,096
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 21.5
A3 —
A2 —
5TH DOUBLE
5/5 1,049
5/7 312.5
TRIPLE TRIO
1,4,7/5,9,11/5,7,11 5,651,987
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,4,7/5,9,11/Any Combination 32,773