Sha Tin · 2020-12-13
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-13 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY PATCH, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with SUPER FOOTBALL second and BELUGA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LUCKY PATCH Closed strongly B/H 1.21.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 7 | 3.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | SUPER FOOTBALL Closed strongly Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 1 | 8.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | BELUGA Led early H J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 13 | 7.6 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 13 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 8 | 61.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | TRUE LEGEND Closed strongly CP-/B1 A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 14 | 6.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | PURE LEGEND Closed strongly V C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 11 | 7.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | SPLENDOUR AND GOLD Closed strongly C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 2 | 71.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE Closed strongly M Barzalona · C W Chang | M Barzalona | C W Chang | 5 | 14.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | LEWIS B1/XB1 K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 6 | 32.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT W Buick · A S Cruz | W Buick | A S Cruz | 10 | 42.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 1 | HEZA BEAUTY E N Callan · J Size | N Callan | J Size | 3 | 5.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | A A AGILITY Closed strongly TT1 H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 346.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 13 | 14 | SO WE JOY CP M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 4 | 33.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 14 | 6 | SHINY ONE B1 V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 12 | 181.0 | 13-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | BELUGA | 21.5% | 4.65 | 3 |
| 2 | 5 | LUCKY PATCH | 16.0% | 6.26 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | HEZA BEAUTY | 13.7% | 7.32 | 11 |
| 4 | 12 | TRUE LEGEND | 12.6% | 7.97 | 5 |
| 5 | 7 | SUPER FOOTBALL | 7.0% | 14.21 | 2 |
| 6 | 4 | LEWIS | 6.5% | 15.41 | 9 |
| 7 | 14 | SO WE JOY | 4.6% | 21.67 | 13 |
| 8 | 2 | SPLENDOUR AND GOLD | 4.3% | 23.07 | 7 |
| 9 | 3 | BEAUTY SPIRIT | 2.9% | 34.34 | 10 |
| 10 | 9 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE | 2.8% | 36.00 | 8 |
| 11 | 10 | PURE LEGEND | 2.7% | 37.30 | 6 |
| 12 | 6 | SHINY ONE | 2.6% | 38.83 | 14 |
| 13 | 13 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE | 2.5% | 40.81 | 4 |
| 14 | 8 | A A AGILITY | 0.5% | 219.84 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 37
PLACE
5 15
7 29.5
11 25
QUINELLA
5,7 172.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 61.5
5,11 53
7,11 122.5
FORECAST
5,7 363
TIERCE
5,7,11 1,959
TRIO
5,7,11 483
FIRST 4
5,7,11,13 4,211
QUARTET
5,7,11,13 56,096
All pools (4 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 21.5
A3 —
A2 —
5TH DOUBLE
5/5 1,049
5/7 312.5
TRIPLE TRIO
1,4,7/5,9,11/5,7,11 5,651,987
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,4,7/5,9,11/Any Combination 32,773