Sha Tin · 2020-12-13
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | MOGUL Closed strongly 2.27.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Moore · A P O'Brien | R Moore | A P O'Brien | 4 | 2.6 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | EXULTANT Led early XB/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 5 | 1.7 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | COLUMBUS COUNTY Closed strongly H/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 1 | 7.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | HO HO KHAN C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 2 | 31.0 | 6 |
| 5 | 0 | PLAYA DEL PUENTE Closed strongly SR/TT W Buick · C S Shum | W Buick | C S Shum | 6 | 33.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | CHEFANO CP-/B2/XB2 P-C Boudot · D A Hayes | P-C Boudot | D A Hayes | 7 | 39.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | ROYAL JULIUS M Barzalona · J Reynier | M Barzalona | J Reynier | 3 | 70.0 | 10-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-13 was Group 1 over 2400m, run on GOOD going. MOGUL, ridden by R Moore and trained by A P O'Brien, won by 3, with EXULTANT second and COLUMBUS COUNTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.7 favourite EXULTANT finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | EXULTANT | 45.3% | 2.21 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | COLUMBUS COUNTY | 37.5% | 2.67 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | MOGUL | 8.0% | 12.56 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | HO HO KHAN | 3.5% | 28.45 | 4 |
| 5 | 0 | PLAYA DEL PUENTE | 2.4% | 40.87 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | ROYAL JULIUS | 2.1% | 48.36 | 7 |
| 7 | 0 | CHEFANO | 1.3% | 76.85 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 26
PLACE
1 10.1
4 14
7 12
QUINELLA
1,7 19
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 16
1,7 11.5
4,7 20
FORECAST
7,1 37
TIERCE
7,1,4 80
TRIO
1,4,7 15
FIRST 4
1,3,4,7 31
QUARTET
7,1,4,3 238
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,12,13/1,4,7 6,168
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 26
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
2/1 49.5
2/7 188