Sha Tin · 2020-12-13

Race 4

Group 1 GOOD 2400m Course A 7 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-13 was Group 1 over 2400m, run on GOOD going. MOGUL, ridden by R Moore and trained by A P O'Brien, won by 3, with EXULTANT second and COLUMBUS COUNTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.7 favourite EXULTANT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.27.21

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	MOGUL Closed strongly 2.27.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Moore · A P O'Brien	R Moore	A P O'Brien	4	121 lb	2.6	3
2	1	EXULTANT Led early XB/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	5	126 lb	1.7	3
3	4	COLUMBUS COUNTY Closed strongly H/TT J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	1	126 lb	7.5	3-1/2
4	3	HO HO KHAN C Y Ho · D J Hall	C Y Ho	D J Hall	2	126 lb	31.0	6
5	6	PLAYA DEL PUENTE Closed strongly SR/TT W Buick · C S Shum	W Buick	C S Shum	6	126 lb	33.0	6-3/4
6	2	CHEFANO CP-/B2/XB2 P-C Boudot · D A Hayes	P-C Boudot	D A Hayes	7	126 lb	39.0	8-3/4
7	5	ROYAL JULIUS M Barzalona · J Reynier	M Barzalona	J Reynier	3	126 lb	70.0	10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick EXULTANT (45.3%) finished 2nd — the winner MOGUL was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	EXULTANT	45.3%	2.21	2	1.7
2	4	COLUMBUS COUNTY	37.5%	2.67	3	7.5
3	7	MOGUL	8.0%	12.56	1	2.6
4	3	HO HO KHAN	3.5%	28.45	4	31.0
5	6	PLAYA DEL PUENTE	2.4%	40.87	5	33.0
6	5	ROYAL JULIUS	2.1%	48.36	7	70.0
7	2	CHEFANO	1.3%	76.85	6	39.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 26

PLACE

1 10.1

4 14

7 12

QUINELLA

1,7 19

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 16

1,7 11.5

4,7 20

FORECAST

7,1 37

TIERCE

7,1,4 80

TRIO

1,4,7 15

FIRST 4

1,3,4,7 31

QUARTET

7,1,4,3 238

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,12,13/1,4,7 6,168

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 26

3RD DOUBLE

2/1 49.5

2/7 188

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