Sha Tin · 2020-12-13
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-13 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. AUTHENTIC CHAMP, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K H Ting, won by 1-1/4, with PLIKCLONE second and STUNNING IMPACT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | AUTHENTIC CHAMP Closed strongly B/H 1.22.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 1 | 2.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 13 | PLIKCLONE Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 10 | 7.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 12 | STUNNING IMPACT Closed strongly CP1 K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 4.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | ULTIMATE GLORY Closed strongly V J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 8 | 16.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | JOYFUL HEART CP2/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 4 | 4.6 | 2 |
| 6 | 9 | CHARITY GRACE H A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 2 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | STAY CHILL Closed strongly T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 13 | 57.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | NORDIC WARRIOR Closed strongly B C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 6 | 31.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 | CHARIZARD Closed strongly TT P-C Boudot · D E Ferraris | P-C Boudot | D E Ferraris | 14 | 25.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 14 | THE DRIVE B/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 7 | 51.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | THE BEST HERO H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 9 | 171.0 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | SCENIC SWEETIE Led early B-/TT1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 5 | 177.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 13 | 10 | CRUCIATUS XB/TT N Callan · C W Chang | N Callan | C W Chang | 11 | 303.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 14 | 6 | MULTIPLE STAR C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 12 | 236.0 | 15-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | JOYFUL HEART | 21.1% | 4.75 | 5 |
| 2 | 13 | PLIKCLONE | 15.6% | 6.40 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | AUTHENTIC CHAMP | 14.8% | 6.74 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | ULTIMATE GLORY | 12.5% | 8.02 | 4 |
| 5 | 12 | STUNNING IMPACT | 9.9% | 10.08 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | NORDIC WARRIOR | 5.6% | 17.72 | 8 |
| 7 | 9 | CHARITY GRACE | 4.6% | 21.88 | 6 |
| 8 | 4 | CHARIZARD | 4.4% | 22.70 | 9 |
| 9 | 14 | THE DRIVE | 3.7% | 27.00 | 10 |
| 10 | 8 | STAY CHILL | 2.5% | 40.79 | 7 |
| 11 | 6 | MULTIPLE STAR | 2.4% | 42.38 | 14 |
| 12 | 10 | CRUCIATUS | 1.0% | 96.81 | 13 |
| 13 | 11 | SCENIC SWEETIE | 1.0% | 99.32 | 12 |
| 14 | 7 | THE BEST HERO | 0.9% | 112.23 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 24.5
PLACE
5 13.5
12 15.5
13 23.5
QUINELLA
5,13 85
QUINELLA PLACE
5,12 26
5,13 34.5
12,13 50.5
FORECAST
5,13 125
TIERCE
5,13,12 525
TRIO
5,12,13 125
FIRST 4
3,5,12,13 288
QUARTET
5,13,12,3 3,331
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
6/5 53.5
6/13 49
3 PICK 1
A1 16
A2 —
A3 —