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Sha Tin · 2020-12-13

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-13 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. CHARITY GO, ridden by W Buick and trained by C S Shum, won by NOSE, with NATURAL STORM second and FLYING MIGHTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite BEAUTY ANGEL finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.48.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 CHARITY GO Closed strongly SR 1.48.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) W Buick · C S Shum 11 8.8 NOSE
2 13 NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B A Badel · P F Yiu 3 4.2 NOSE
3 12 FLYING MIGHTY Closed strongly C Schofield · D J Hall 5 19.0 N
4 11 CHEVALIER PRINCE CP J Moreira · F C Lor 9 4.9 1-1/2
5 3 ENRICHMENT Closed strongly B R Moore · J Size 4 7.5 1-3/4
6 6 CHAMPION SUPREME Closed strongly B A Hamelin · Y S Tsui 14 157.0 2
7 5 HAPPY MY BROTHER B/TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 91.0 2
8 10 BEAUTY ANGEL TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 1 3.9 2
9 9 AWE Closed strongly T Marquand · D A Hayes 10 32.0 2-1/4
10 1 ARROGANT Led early B/TT V Borges · C Fownes 8 21.0 4
11 7 KYRUS UNICORN SR N Callan · C W Chang 6 60.0 5
12 4 CINQUANTE CINQ P-C Boudot · T P Yung 2 23.0 5-1/2
13 8 ENZEMBLE H/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 12 20.0 6-1/2
14 14 DIVINE UNICORN TT M Chadwick · W Y So 13 67.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARITY GO2. NATURAL STORM+0.05L3. FLYING MIGHTY+0.05L4. CHEVALIER PRINCE+1.5L5. ENRICHMENT+1.75L6. CHAMPION SUPREME+2L7. HAPPY MY BROTHER+2L8. BEAUTY ANGEL+2L9. AWE+2.25L10. ARROGANT+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick CHEVALIER PRINCE (27.0%) finished 4th — the winner CHARITY GO was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 CHEVALIER PRINCE 27.0% 3.70 4
2 10 BEAUTY ANGEL 26.6% 3.76 8
3 13 NATURAL STORM 17.8% 5.63 2
4 2 CHARITY GO 4.5% 22.31 1
5 8 ENZEMBLE 4.0% 25.28 13
6 3 ENRICHMENT 3.7% 26.99 5
7 4 CINQUANTE CINQ 3.5% 28.42 12
8 9 AWE 3.1% 31.82 9
9 7 KYRUS UNICORN 2.1% 48.67 11
10 12 FLYING MIGHTY 2.0% 49.71 3
11 1 ARROGANT 1.9% 51.31 10
12 14 DIVINE UNICORN 1.9% 53.48 14
13 6 CHAMPION SUPREME 1.3% 75.41 6
14 5 HAPPY MY BROTHER 0.6% 169.90 7
CHEVALIER PRINCEBEAUTY ANGELNATURAL STORMCHARITY GO — wonENZEMBLEENRICHMENTCINQUANTE CINQAWEKYRUS UNICORNFLYING MIGHTYARROGANTDIVINE UNICORNCHAMPION SUPREMEHAPPY MY BROTHER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 88.5

PLACE

2 20.5

12 61

13 16.5

QUINELLA

2,13 149.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,12 309

2,13 57.5

12,13 161.5

FORECAST

2,13 405

TIERCE

2,13,12 6,617

TRIO

2,12,13 1,578

FIRST 4

2,11,12,13 1,448

QUARTET

2,13,12,11 34,741

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

5/2 420

5/13 19.5

3 PICK 1

A3 30

A2

A1