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Sha Tin · 2020-12-13

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.48.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CHARITY GO Closed strongly SR 1.48.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) W Buick · C S Shum 11 8.8 NOSE
2 0 NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B A Badel · P F Yiu 3 4.2 NOSE
3 0 FLYING MIGHTY Closed strongly C Schofield · D J Hall 5 19.0 N
4 0 CHEVALIER PRINCE CP J Moreira · F C Lor 9 4.9 1-1/2
5 0 ENRICHMENT Closed strongly B R Moore · J Size 4 7.5 1-3/4
6 0 CHAMPION SUPREME Closed strongly B A Hamelin · Y S Tsui 14 157.0 2
7 0 HAPPY MY BROTHER B/TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 91.0 2
8 0 BEAUTY ANGEL TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 1 3.9 2
9 0 AWE Closed strongly T Marquand · D A Hayes 10 32.0 2-1/4
10 0 ARROGANT Led early B/TT V Borges · C Fownes 8 21.0 4
11 0 KYRUS UNICORN SR N Callan · C W Chang 6 60.0 5
12 0 CINQUANTE CINQ P-C Boudot · T P Yung 2 23.0 5-1/2
13 0 ENZEMBLE H/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 12 20.0 6-1/2
14 0 DIVINE UNICORN TT M Chadwick · W Y So 13 67.0 10-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-13 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. CHARITY GO, ridden by W Buick and trained by C S Shum, won by NOSE, with NATURAL STORM second and FLYING MIGHTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite BEAUTY ANGEL finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARITY GO—2. NATURAL STORM+0.05L3. FLYING MIGHTY+0.05L4. CHEVALIER PRINCE+1.5L5. ENRICHMENT+1.75L6. CHAMPION SUPREME+2L7. HAPPY MY BROTHER+2L8. BEAUTY ANGEL+2L9. AWE+2.25L10. ARROGANT+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick CHEVALIER PRINCE (27.0%) finished 4th — the winner CHARITY GO was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 CHEVALIER PRINCE 27.0% 3.70 4
2 0 BEAUTY ANGEL 26.6% 3.76 8
3 0 NATURAL STORM 17.8% 5.63 2
4 0 CHARITY GO 4.5% 22.31 1
5 0 ENZEMBLE 4.0% 25.28 13
6 0 ENRICHMENT 3.7% 26.99 5
7 0 CINQUANTE CINQ 3.5% 28.42 12
8 0 AWE 3.1% 31.82 9
9 0 KYRUS UNICORN 2.1% 48.67 11
10 0 FLYING MIGHTY 2.0% 49.71 3
11 0 ARROGANT 1.9% 51.31 10
12 0 DIVINE UNICORN 1.9% 53.48 14
13 0 CHAMPION SUPREME 1.3% 75.41 6
14 0 HAPPY MY BROTHER 0.6% 169.90 7
CHEVALIER PRINCEBEAUTY ANGELNATURAL STORMCHARITY GO — wonENZEMBLEENRICHMENTCINQUANTE CINQAWEKYRUS UNICORNFLYING MIGHTYARROGANTDIVINE UNICORNCHAMPION SUPREMEHAPPY MY BROTHER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 88.5

PLACE

2 20.5

12 61

13 16.5

QUINELLA

2,13 149.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,12 309

2,13 57.5

12,13 161.5

FORECAST

2,13 405

TIERCE

2,13,12 6,617

TRIO

2,12,13 1,578

FIRST 4

2,11,12,13 1,448

QUARTET

2,13,12,11 34,741

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

5/2 420

5/13 19.5

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 30