Sha Tin · 2020-12-13

Race 8

Group 1 GOOD 2000m Course A 8 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-13 was Group 1 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. NORMCORE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K Hagiwara, won by 3/4, with WIN BRIGHT second and MAGICAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite MAGICAL finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 2.00.50

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	NORMCORE Closed strongly 2.00.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K Hagiwara	Z Purton	K Hagiwara	3	122 lb	10.0	3/4
2	3	WIN BRIGHT Closed strongly M Matsuoka · Y Hatakeyama	M Matsuoka	Y Hatakeyama	8	126 lb	10.0	3/4
3	7	MAGICAL Closed strongly XB R Moore · A P O'Brien	R Moore	A P O'Brien	1	122 lb	2.9	3/4
4	2	DANON PREMIUM B/XB W Buick · M Nakauchida	W Buick	M Nakauchida	6	126 lb	5.6	2
5	4	FURORE B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz	J Moreira	A S Cruz	5	126 lb	3.7	2-3/4
6	6	DANCES WITH DRAGON Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	7	126 lb	29.0	3-3/4
7	1	SKALLETI Closed strongly P-C Boudot · J Reynier	P-C Boudot	J Reynier	4	126 lb	5.3	4-1/4
8	5	TIME WARP Led early TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	2	126 lb	63.0	14-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick FURORE (31.6%) finished 5th — the winner NORMCORE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	FURORE	31.6%	3.16	5	3.7
2	8	NORMCORE	16.9%	5.92	1	10.0
3	3	WIN BRIGHT	16.6%	6.03	2	10.0
4	7	MAGICAL	10.6%	9.45	3	2.9
5	2	DANON PREMIUM	7.0%	14.34	4	5.6
6	6	DANCES WITH DRAGON	6.8%	14.71	6	29.0
7	1	SKALLETI	5.6%	17.94	7	5.3
8	5	TIME WARP	5.0%	20.09	8	63.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 109.5

PLACE

3 31

7 13.5

8 25.5

QUINELLA

3,8 564.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 58

3,8 129

7,8 51

FORECAST

8,3 916

TIERCE

8,3,7 3,791

TRIO

3,7,8 410

FIRST 4

2,3,7,8 268

QUARTET

8,3,7,2 12,281

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 70.5

A1 —

7TH DOUBLE

2/3 27.5

2/8 139.5

WINNING REGION

C2 —

C1 27.5

C3 —

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