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Sha Tin · 2020-12-13

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-13 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WINNING DREAMER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by F C Lor, won by 1, with BEAUTY APPLAUSE second and CALIFORNIA RAD third. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 WINNING DREAMER 1.08.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · F C Lor 1 1.8 1
2 10 BEAUTY APPLAUSE TT V Borges · J Size 2 19.0 1
3 5 CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT W Buick · A S Cruz 12 34.0 1-1/4
4 1 DUKE WAI B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 11 14.0 2
5 2 SHINING ACE B/TT1 R Moore · J Size 7 64.0 2-3/4
6 6 SKY FIELD TT J Moreira · C Fownes 6 2.7 3-1/4
7 13 HIGHLY PROACTIVE H/P/TT A Badel · K W Lui 9 66.0 4-1/2
8 9 HAPPY FUN B/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 4 96.0 4-1/2
9 4 VICTORIAM Z Purton · K W Lui 10 59.0 4-1/2
10 11 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT T Piccone · W Y So 13 114.0 5-1/4
11 7 PAS MALOTRU C Schofield · D A Hayes 3 36.0 6
12 8 GUNNISON H N Wong · Y S Tsui 5 218.0 6-3/4
13 12 ALL IN MIND H/XB/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz 8 16.0 7-1/2
14 14 BALTIC SUCCESS TT H T Mo · C S Shum 14 263.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING DREAMER2. BEAUTY APPLAUSE+1L3. CALIFORNIA RAD+1.25L4. DUKE WAI+2L5. SHINING ACE+2.75L6. SKY FIELD+3.25L7. HIGHLY PROACTIVE+4.5L8. HAPPY FUN+4.5L9. VICTORIAM+4.5L10. TEAM SPIRIT+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SKY FIELD (39.4%) finished 6th — the winner WINNING DREAMER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 SKY FIELD 39.4% 2.54 6
2 3 WINNING DREAMER 24.1% 4.15 1
3 10 BEAUTY APPLAUSE 6.9% 14.54 2
4 5 CALIFORNIA RAD 5.1% 19.53 3
5 1 DUKE WAI 5.0% 20.02 4
6 12 ALL IN MIND 3.6% 27.72 13
7 4 VICTORIAM 3.3% 29.89 9
8 13 HIGHLY PROACTIVE 3.1% 31.78 7
9 2 SHINING ACE 2.8% 35.79 5
10 14 BALTIC SUCCESS 1.9% 52.86 14
11 11 TEAM SPIRIT 1.8% 56.62 10
12 7 PAS MALOTRU 1.5% 65.30 11
13 8 GUNNISON 0.8% 124.47 12
14 9 HAPPY FUN 0.7% 151.76 8
SKY FIELDWINNING DREAMER — wonBEAUTY APPLAUSECALIFORNIA RADDUKE WAIALL IN MINDVICTORIAMHIGHLY PROACTIVESHINING ACEBALTIC SUCCESSTEAM SPIRITPAS MALOTRUGUNNISONHAPPY FUN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 18.5

PLACE

3 11.5

5 56.5

10 30.5

QUINELLA

3,10 155.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 81.5

3,10 51.5

5,10 478.5

FORECAST

3,10 186

TIERCE

3,10,5 2,439

TRIO

3,5,10 833

FIRST 4

1,3,5,10 1,165

QUARTET

3,10,5,1 12,180

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 18.5

A2

A3

8TH DOUBLE

8/3 206

8/10 558.5