沙田 · 2020-12-13
第 5場
2020-12-13沙田第5場，Group 1，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由R Moore策騎、T Yasuda訓練的DANON SMASH勝出，贏出1/2。JOLLY BANNER獲得亞軍；RATTAN獲得季軍。2.1倍大熱門HOT KING PRAWN跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | DANON SMASH 1.08.45 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） R Moore · T Yasuda | R Moore | T Yasuda | 14 | 22.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | JOLLY BANNER B M Barzalona · P F Yiu | M Barzalona | P F Yiu | 3 | 84.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | RATTAN B C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 6 | 23.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | WISHFUL THINKER K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 9 | 42.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 13 | FAT TURTLE B A Hamelin · F C Lor | A Hamelin | F C Lor | 13 | 144.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | COMPUTER PATCH TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 11 | 9.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | HOT KING PRAWN J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 5 | 2.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | VOYAGE WARRIOR K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 8 | 16.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | AMAZING STAR Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 2 | 11.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 14 | STRONGER CP/XB/TT P-C Boudot · D J Whyte | P-C Boudot | D J Whyte | 4 | 33.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | CLASSIQUE LEGEND C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 1 | 3.8 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | BIG PARTY M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 7 | 83.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 13 | 6 | TOWER OF LONDON W Buick · K Fujisawa | W Buick | K Fujisawa | 12 | 35.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 14 | 3 | BIG TIME BABY N Callan · K L Man | N Callan | K L Man | 10 | 60.0 | 38-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | COMPUTER PATCH | 26.7% | 3.74 | 6 |
| 2 | 2 | HOT KING PRAWN | 17.2% | 5.81 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | DANON SMASH | 9.6% | 10.40 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | CLASSIQUE LEGEND | 7.4% | 13.45 | 11 |
| 5 | 12 | AMAZING STAR | 6.5% | 15.40 | 9 |
| 6 | 4 | VOYAGE WARRIOR | 5.4% | 18.36 | 8 |
| 7 | 6 | TOWER OF LONDON | 5.4% | 18.45 | 13 |
| 8 | 13 | FAT TURTLE | 4.4% | 22.95 | 5 |
| 9 | 9 | RATTAN | 4.0% | 24.70 | 3 |
| 10 | 14 | STRONGER | 3.7% | 26.80 | 10 |
| 11 | 10 | BIG PARTY | 3.5% | 28.22 | 12 |
| 12 | 3 | BIG TIME BABY | 2.3% | 43.72 | 14 |
| 13 | 7 | WISHFUL THINKER | 1.9% | 52.34 | 4 |
| 14 | 11 | JOLLY BANNER | 1.8% | 56.52 | 2 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 227.5
PLACE
5 64
9 43
11 150
QUINELLA
5,11 7,314.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 514.5
5,11 1,931
9,11 1,119.5
FORECAST
5,11 19,067
TIERCE
5,11,9 151,951
TRIO
5,9,11 30,421
FIRST 4
5,7,9,11 64,993
QUARTET
5,11,9,7 1,990,851
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 54.5
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
7/5 312.5
7/11 303.5