沙田 · 2021-01-24
第 10場
2021-01-24沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的SIGHT SUCCESS勝出，贏出2。BIG FORTUNE獲得亞軍；DUBLIN STAR獲得季軍。頭馬以1.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SIGHT SUCCESS E 1.08.85 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 12 | 1.8 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | BIG FORTUNE B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 7 | 15.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 9 | DUBLIN STAR B A Hamelin · K L Man | A Hamelin | K L Man | 1 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 14 | TRUST ME H M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 14 | 28.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | WHEN YOU BELIEVE K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 11 | 39.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | REGENCY BO BO B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 2 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | TRANSCENDENT CP/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 9 | 26.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 13 | SHADOW RUNNER H T Mo · P O'Sullivan | H T Mo | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 102.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | SERIOUS LIAISON TT H N Wong · D J Hall | H N Wong | D J Hall | 6 | 220.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | EXCELLENT CHARIOT TT K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 10 | 20.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | WINNING FOR ALL B/H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 13.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | NORTHERN SUPERSTAR CP/H/TT T Piccone · A T Millard | T Piccone | A T Millard | 3 | 132.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 13 | 3 | MASTER MONTARO B/XB Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 13 | 5.5 | 10 |
| 14 | 11 | NOIR RIDER SR-/TT1 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 5 | 314.0 | 10-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SIGHT SUCCESS | 47.4% | 2.11 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | MASTER MONTARO | 17.0% | 5.89 | 13 |
| 3 | 2 | WINNING FOR ALL | 6.3% | 15.85 | 11 |
| 4 | 12 | EXCELLENT CHARIOT | 5.6% | 17.96 | 10 |
| 5 | 5 | BIG FORTUNE | 4.8% | 20.64 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | WHEN YOU BELIEVE | 3.9% | 25.49 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | TRANSCENDENT | 3.8% | 26.02 | 7 |
| 8 | 14 | TRUST ME | 3.6% | 28.16 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | DUBLIN STAR | 3.2% | 30.83 | 3 |
| 10 | 4 | REGENCY BO BO | 2.0% | 50.18 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | NORTHERN SUPERSTAR | 0.9% | 105.36 | 12 |
| 12 | 13 | SHADOW RUNNER | 0.7% | 135.06 | 8 |
| 13 | 10 | SERIOUS LIAISON | 0.4% | 273.17 | 9 |
| 14 | 11 | NOIR RIDER | 0.3% | 295.95 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 18.5
PLACE
5 32.5
7 12.5
9 25
QUINELLA
5,7 130.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 50
5,9 148.5
7,9 37.5
FORECAST
7,5 156
TIERCE
7,5,9 931
TRIO
5,7,9 267
FIRST 4
5,7,9,14 1,055
QUARTET
7,5,9,14 10,339
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 14
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
7,10,12/5,7,9 117,087
9TH DOUBLE
7/5 514
7/7 412.5
SIX UP
1,11/13,14/1,2/2,5/7,10/5,7 10,098
1/14/1/2/7/7 983,906
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
2/7/5 10,686
2/7/7 11,801