沙田 · 2021-01-24
第 1場
2021-01-24沙田第1場，Class 4，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、C S Shum訓練的WINNER METHOD勝出，贏出1-1/2。BELLA BABY獲得亞軍；NOBLE DESIRE獲得季軍。頭馬以2.1倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | WINNER METHOD TT1 0.56.55 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 11 | 2.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 14 | BELLA BABY XB/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 5 | 11.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 13 | NOBLE DESIRE V/XB M F Poon · D J Whyte | M F Poon | D J Whyte | 7 | 7.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | SELL MY SOLE E J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 6 | 9.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | SUNNY AND GOLD H/TT K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 2 | 17.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | CALIFORNIA GUNGHO B/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz | C Soumillon | A S Cruz | 12 | 4.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | HOLYSHOWCASING T Piccone · D E Ferraris | T Piccone | D E Ferraris | 13 | 192.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | ISLAND SUNSHINE V1 N Callan · K W Lui | N Callan | K W Lui | 1 | 113.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | DRAGON KINGDOM H1 K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 9 | 37.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 5 | E HONEY C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 8 | 120.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | FOCUS H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 14 | 72.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | MOMENTUM HAPPY CP H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 3 | 50.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 13 | 11 | HONEY BEE CP/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 4 | 127.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 14 | 9 | INCREDIBLE TT C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 10 | 137.0 | 12-1/2 |
| — | 0 | JUMBO ENGINE C Wong · R Gibson | C Wong | R Gibson | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | WINNER METHOD | 26.1% | 3.83 | 1 |
| 2 | 14 | BELLA BABY | 19.5% | 5.12 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | SELL MY SOLE | 14.0% | 7.14 | 4 |
| 4 | 13 | NOBLE DESIRE | 9.4% | 10.66 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | E HONEY | 7.2% | 13.82 | 10 |
| 6 | 1 | CALIFORNIA GUNGHO | 6.9% | 14.50 | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | ISLAND SUNSHINE | 3.7% | 26.87 | 8 |
| 8 | 4 | DRAGON KINGDOM | 3.5% | 28.45 | 9 |
| 9 | 12 | SUNNY AND GOLD | 3.2% | 31.29 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | FOCUS | 2.3% | 43.48 | 11 |
| 11 | 3 | MOMENTUM HAPPY | 1.6% | 61.30 | 12 |
| 12 | 9 | INCREDIBLE | 1.6% | 62.17 | 14 |
| 13 | 6 | HOLYSHOWCASING | 0.4% | 227.79 | 7 |
| 14 | 11 | HONEY BEE | 0.4% | 245.69 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 21
PLACE
8 10.1
13 19
14 22.5
QUINELLA
8,14 114
QUINELLA PLACE
8,13 30.5
8,14 48
13,14 59
FORECAST
8,14 167
TIERCE
8,14,13 498
TRIO
8,13,14 149
FIRST 4
2,8,13,14 219
QUARTET
8,14,13,2 2,740
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 14