沙田 · 2021-01-24
第 9場
2021-01-24沙田第9場，Class 2，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD。由C Schofield策騎、K H Ting訓練的ASSIMILATE勝出，贏出SH。CHARITY GO獲得亞軍；TIANCHI MONSTER獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.7倍大熱門PACKING WALTHAM跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | ASSIMILATE 後段發力 B/TT 1.47.70 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 8 | 16.0 | SH |
| 2 | 10 | CHARITY GO 後段發力 SR A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 10 | 7.3 | SH |
| 3 | 12 | TIANCHI MONSTER 後段發力 A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 5 | 11.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | PANFIELD 後段發力 TT J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 13 | 5.4 | 1 |
| 5 | 9 | PACKING WALTHAM 後段發力 CP/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 3 | 3.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | BUTTERFIELD TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 11 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | FLYING QUEST 後段發力 B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 4 | 22.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | SUPER OASIS B/XB T Piccone · P F Yiu | T Piccone | P F Yiu | 1 | 9.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | RELIABLE TEAM CP Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 6 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | GREEN LUCK PC- K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 9 | 35.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 11 | 1 | HELENE LEADINGSTAR 後段發力 XB/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 12 | 16.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 5 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM H1/XB1/TT- K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 2 | 84.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 13 | 14 | INDICATIVE VOTE TT1 H T Mo · K W Lui | H T Mo | K W Lui | 7 | 31.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 14 | 13 | THINKIN' BIG 早段領放 B-/XB/CP1/TT1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 14 | 43.0 | 6-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | PANFIELD | 34.3% | 2.91 | 4 |
| 2 | 10 | CHARITY GO | 12.2% | 8.20 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | RELIABLE TEAM | 11.9% | 8.44 | 9 |
| 4 | 9 | PACKING WALTHAM | 8.1% | 12.28 | 5 |
| 5 | 12 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 7.3% | 13.61 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | BUTTERFIELD | 6.5% | 15.30 | 6 |
| 7 | 1 | HELENE LEADINGSTAR | 4.1% | 24.41 | 11 |
| 8 | 8 | FLYING QUEST | 3.7% | 27.04 | 7 |
| 9 | 3 | SUPER OASIS | 2.9% | 34.43 | 8 |
| 10 | 7 | ASSIMILATE | 2.9% | 34.96 | 1 |
| 11 | 13 | THINKIN' BIG | 2.8% | 36.32 | 14 |
| 12 | 14 | INDICATIVE VOTE | 1.5% | 65.72 | 13 |
| 13 | 6 | GREEN LUCK | 1.3% | 76.80 | 10 |
| 14 | 5 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM | 0.5% | 212.77 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 168.5
PLACE
7 51
10 24.5
12 28.5
QUINELLA
7,10 534.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,10 154.5
7,12 300.5
10,12 80
FORECAST
7,10 1,356
TIERCE
7,10,12 11,062
TRIO
7,10,12 1,937
FIRST 4
7,10,11,12 2,873
QUARTET
7,10,12,11 66,047
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 19.5
8TH DOUBLE
2/7 4,452
2/10 318.5