沙田 · 2021-01-24
第 2場
2021-01-24沙田第2場，Class 4，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD。由T Piccone策騎、W Y So訓練的PAKISTAN FRIEND勝出，贏出2。SHADOW BREAKER獲得亞軍；EZRA獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.1倍大熱門FAMILY LEADER跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | PAKISTAN FRIEND 後段發力 TT 1.47.28 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 8 | 33.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 10 | SHADOW BREAKER 後段發力 SR/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 5 | 39.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | EZRA 後段發力 CP1 K C Leung · A T Millard | K C Leung | A T Millard | 14 | 18.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | SMART COUSIN 後段發力 K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 10 | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | FAMILY LEADER 後段發力 B J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 6 | 3.1 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | BUNDLE OF DELIGHT C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 2 | 9.8 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | CHEERFUL STAR 後段發力 CP-/B1/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 11 | 8.6 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 13 | YES WE CAN 後段發力 TT A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 13 | 12.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 14 | FORTUNE TRIPLE C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 12 | 126.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | LIGHT MY DAY CP/TT C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 4 | 14.0 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | MCMUNIGAL B/TT H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | 3 | 53.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | RED ELYSEES B A Hamelin · K L Man | A Hamelin | K L Man | 9 | 9.9 | 13 |
| 13 | 4 | HAPPY FORTUNE 早段領放 H-/P/TT M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 7 | 57.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 14 | 8 | RAINBOW LIGHT CP/SB/XB/TT C Soumillon · D J Whyte | C Soumillon | D J Whyte | 1 | 5.3 | 31-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | FAMILY LEADER | 31.3% | 3.19 | 5 |
| 2 | 1 | BUNDLE OF DELIGHT | 12.0% | 8.36 | 6 |
| 3 | 12 | SMART COUSIN | 10.8% | 9.26 | 4 |
| 4 | 13 | YES WE CAN | 9.2% | 10.89 | 8 |
| 5 | 8 | RAINBOW LIGHT | 8.0% | 12.52 | 14 |
| 6 | 11 | CHEERFUL STAR | 7.6% | 13.17 | 7 |
| 7 | 3 | RED ELYSEES | 4.0% | 25.19 | 12 |
| 8 | 2 | EZRA | 3.4% | 29.82 | 3 |
| 9 | 9 | MCMUNIGAL | 3.0% | 33.14 | 11 |
| 10 | 5 | LIGHT MY DAY | 2.8% | 35.71 | 10 |
| 11 | 6 | PAKISTAN FRIEND | 2.8% | 35.77 | 1 |
| 12 | 10 | SHADOW BREAKER | 2.7% | 36.58 | 2 |
| 13 | 14 | FORTUNE TRIPLE | 1.3% | 75.70 | 9 |
| 14 | 4 | HAPPY FORTUNE | 1.2% | 86.52 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 332
PLACE
2 62
6 94.5
10 103
QUINELLA
6,10 5,706
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 866
2,10 944
6,10 1,393
FORECAST
6,10 12,201
TIERCE
6,10,2 164,570
TRIO
2,6,10 32,900
FIRST 4
2,6,10,12 82,664
QUARTET
6,10,2,12 2,276,008
全部彩池（另 2 項）
1ST DOUBLE
8/6 839.5
8/10 176
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 26
A1 —