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Sha Tin · 2021-01-24

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD 1800m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-24 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. ASSIMILATE, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K H Ting, won by SH, with CHARITY GO second and TIANCHI MONSTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite PACKING WALTHAM finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.47.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 ASSIMILATE Closed strongly B/TT 1.47.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K H Ting 8 16.0 SH
2 10 CHARITY GO Closed strongly SR A Badel · C S Shum 10 7.3 SH
3 12 TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly A Hamelin · W Y So 5 11.0 1/2
4 11 PANFIELD Closed strongly TT J Moreira · A T Millard 13 5.4 1
5 9 PACKING WALTHAM Closed strongly CP/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 3 3.7 1-1/4
6 2 BUTTERFIELD TT K Teetan · C S Shum 11 11.0 1-1/4
7 8 FLYING QUEST Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall 4 22.0 1-1/2
8 3 SUPER OASIS B/XB T Piccone · P F Yiu 1 9.5 2-1/4
9 4 RELIABLE TEAM CP Z Purton · F C Lor 6 11.0 2-1/2
10 6 GREEN LUCK PC- K H Chan · C Fownes 9 35.0 2-3/4
11 1 HELENE LEADINGSTAR Closed strongly XB/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 12 16.0 5
12 5 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM H1/XB1/TT- K C Leung · Y S Tsui 2 84.0 5-1/4
13 14 INDICATIVE VOTE TT1 H T Mo · K W Lui 7 31.0 6-3/4
14 13 THINKIN' BIG Led early B-/XB/CP1/TT1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte 14 43.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ASSIMILATE2. CHARITY GO+0.1L3. TIANCHI MONSTER+0.5L4. PANFIELD+1L5. PACKING WALTHAM+1.25L6. BUTTERFIELD+1.25L7. FLYING QUEST+1.5L8. SUPER OASIS+2.25L9. RELIABLE TEAM+2.5L10. GREEN LUCK+2.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick PANFIELD (34.3%) finished 4th — the winner ASSIMILATE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 PANFIELD 34.3% 2.91 4
2 10 CHARITY GO 12.2% 8.20 2
3 4 RELIABLE TEAM 11.9% 8.44 9
4 9 PACKING WALTHAM 8.1% 12.28 5
5 12 TIANCHI MONSTER 7.3% 13.61 3
6 2 BUTTERFIELD 6.5% 15.30 6
7 1 HELENE LEADINGSTAR 4.1% 24.41 11
8 8 FLYING QUEST 3.7% 27.04 7
9 3 SUPER OASIS 2.9% 34.43 8
10 7 ASSIMILATE 2.9% 34.96 1
11 13 THINKIN' BIG 2.8% 36.32 14
12 14 INDICATIVE VOTE 1.5% 65.72 13
13 6 GREEN LUCK 1.3% 76.80 10
14 5 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 0.5% 212.77 12
PANFIELDCHARITY GORELIABLE TEAMPACKING WALTHAMTIANCHI MONSTERBUTTERFIELDHELENE LEADINGSTARFLYING QUESTSUPER OASISASSIMILATE — wonTHINKIN' BIGINDICATIVE VOTEGREEN LUCKARTHUR'S KINGDOM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 168.5

PLACE

7 51

10 24.5

12 28.5

QUINELLA

7,10 534.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,10 154.5

7,12 300.5

10,12 80

FORECAST

7,10 1,356

TIERCE

7,10,12 11,062

TRIO

7,10,12 1,937

FIRST 4

7,10,11,12 2,873

QUARTET

7,10,12,11 66,047

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 19.5

8TH DOUBLE

2/7 4,452

2/10 318.5