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Sha Tin · 2021-01-24

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-01-24 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MASTER HERO, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with CHARITY GRACE second and PARTY GENIUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite FORTUNE MASTER finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 MASTER HERO Closed strongly XB/TT 1.21.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A S Cruz 1 4.2 N
2 4 CHARITY GRACE Closed strongly B A Badel · C S Shum 14 7.2 N
3 14 PARTY GENIUS B-/XB/CP1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 10 9.0 1/2
4 5 FORTUNE MASTER C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 3.7 1-1/2
5 13 BREEZE OF SPRING Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · K H Ting 12 13.0 1-3/4
6 3 ULTIMATE GLORY Closed strongly V C Soumillon · K L Man 9 10.0 2-1/4
7 12 APEX TOP Led early B A Hamelin · A T Millard 3 20.0 2-3/4
8 6 GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly B Z Purton · C W Chang 6 12.0 4
9 11 MAXIMIZE HEART B M F Poon · C H Yip 13 32.0 5
10 1 WISDOM PATCH XB/TT N Callan · P O'Sullivan 2 11.0 5-1/2
11 9 BRILLIANT CHINA CP1/TT C Schofield · T P Yung 4 105.0 5-3/4
12 10 OH BRAVO TT T Piccone · W Y So 7 119.0 5-3/4
13 2 BRIGHT VISION B K C Leung · P F Yiu 8 60.0 6-1/2
14 8 AION B Shinn · D A Hayes 11 245.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER HERO2. CHARITY GRACE+0.05L3. PARTY GENIUS+0.5L4. FORTUNE MASTER+1.5L5. BREEZE OF SPRING+1.75L6. ULTIMATE GLORY+2.25L7. APEX TOP+2.75L8. GOLDEN FOUR+4L9. MAXIMIZE HEART+5L10. WISDOM PATCH+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MASTER HERO (35.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 MASTER HERO 35.8% 2.79 1
2 5 FORTUNE MASTER 18.1% 5.53 4
3 4 CHARITY GRACE 12.3% 8.16 2
4 6 GOLDEN FOUR 6.9% 14.44 8
5 12 APEX TOP 4.9% 20.32 7
6 13 BREEZE OF SPRING 4.6% 21.87 5
7 3 ULTIMATE GLORY 4.4% 22.48 6
8 11 MAXIMIZE HEART 2.9% 34.05 9
9 14 PARTY GENIUS 2.9% 35.01 3
10 1 WISDOM PATCH 2.3% 44.22 10
11 2 BRIGHT VISION 1.9% 53.40 13
12 9 BRILLIANT CHINA 1.7% 58.44 11
13 10 OH BRAVO 1.0% 103.07 12
14 8 AION 0.4% 281.31 14
MASTER HERO — wonFORTUNE MASTERCHARITY GRACEGOLDEN FOURAPEX TOPBREEZE OF SPRINGULTIMATE GLORYMAXIMIZE HEARTPARTY GENIUSWISDOM PATCHBRIGHT VISIONBRILLIANT CHINAOH BRAVOAION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 42

PLACE

4 25.5

7 18

14 31.5

QUINELLA

4,7 214.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 72

4,14 95.5

7,14 84.5

FORECAST

7,4 312

TIERCE

7,4,14 2,410

TRIO

4,7,14 521

FIRST 4

4,5,7,14 300

QUARTET

7,4,14,5 7,147

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

6/4 632

6/7 1,604

3 PICK 1

A1 19.5

A2

A3